Markets
Markets are volatile, but its very important to keep things in perspective.
- S&P 500 16% off all time high.
- 5 and 10 year annualized returns of 15% and 11%.
- CAPE Ratio still high at 33.
Tesla
“The reality is, in the future, most people are not going to buy cars.”
Letter and Financials
FSD Supervised ride-hailing service is live for an early set of employees in Austin & San Francisco
- Model Y best selling car on Earth. 2 years in row. Transition lines in all factories (Fremont, Austin, Shanghai, Berlin) in ~6-8 weeks
- World leader in real-world AI. Unsupervised self-driving will dominate the US.
- Leader in manufacturing. No other EV biz in US makes money and even ICE divisions will struggle with tariffs
- Tesla stressed their focus on localizing supply chain
- They will “turn-on” Austin, then other cities push-button
- Millions of cars driving autonomously mid to late next year
- Optimus
- China: Optimus Humanoid Robot will be #1 with China in spots 2-10
Investor Call here on YouTube
- Will spend less time at DOGE
- Play 12:12: future of company is based on large scale autonomous cars and robots. At scale at low cost. Value is staggering. Believes Tesla will be most valuable company in world by far. More than next 5 combined. (so $15 trillion?).
- Play at 20:20. 1000’s of Optimus robots working if factories by end of this year. Will scale faster than any product in history. Million units/yr in 4-5 years. 2030 1 million per year (maybe 2029).
- Play at 35:40 . Model Y’s on track for paid rides in Austin in June. Many other cities by end of year. S-curve. Robotaxi’s operating at scale in millions by 2H 2026.
- Play at 40:16. Many days without knowing if improvement is happening. 10,000 miles/ intervention. Teslas driving everywhere in Austin. Average person drives 10,000 miles/ year.
- Play at 47:18. “Waymo money”. Tesla costs 20% less. Doesn’t see anyone competing with Tesla at present. Tesla will have 99% or 90% something market share! Millions of cars deployed. Risk: Regulatory risk. In a few years will have 10m cars on road.
- Play at 1:01.30. We make also make our own cells! Tesla is the most competitive battery.
- Play at 1:11.58. Why are people still buying other car, like BMW’s. This is an Iphone moment.
- Elon: “Reality is most people won’t buy cars in future”. Flip phone analogy. Not perfect, but not bad.
- Elon: “Buying a gasoline car is like riding a horse. People still do it, but rare.”
- Play at 1:30.25. Who is ahead in Drones and AI? Vassal state. 100% of drones have a reliance on China. “China is amazing!”. Humanoid robots. No company in world that can match Tesla. Concerned that #’s 2-10 are Chinese companies.
Conclusion:
Buy the future
