In this episode, Luke Bartholomew speaks to abrdn’s Deputy Chief Economist after the developments in the US economy and markets over the summer, and look forward to the upcoming Federal Reserve decision and mid-term elections. The Fed is gearing up for another mammoth rate hike, continuing the sharpest adjustment in monetary policy settings since the Volker era.
- This continued urgency provides a pushback to markets which had been flirting with the possibility of a more cautious Fed, and comes in response to a really ugly underlying inflation reading in August.
- We continue to believe that the tightening needed to bring inflation back under control will be fatal for the business cycle, and have brought forward our expectation for a US recession to the middle of next year.
- Democrats have shown they can get policy done with a unified Congress and White House, but face an uphill battle to hold the latter in the November midterms, which could limit the degree of fiscal policy support in the face of a 2023 downturn.
