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Episode #1123: Today we cover Rivian’s fight over frozen EV credit revenue, ex-Tesla talent launching Hubber to fill urban charging gaps, and a sharp rebound in CEO confidence as recession fears cool but cost pressures remain.
Show Notes with links:
- Rivian says the Trump administration’s rollback of fuel economy penalties is choking off $100 million in revenue from regulatory credits—a revenue stream EV makers have depended on for years. The fight shows how quickly policy changes can shake up automaker economics.
- EV makers like Rivian, Lucid, and Tesla sell CAFE credits to legacy brands that struggle with gas-mileage targets.
- NHTSA froze compliance letters after the rollback, leaving credit deals in limbo.
- Rivian already negotiated deals it now can’t close; Tesla projects a $1.1B hit to expected revenue.
- GM and Ford, frequent buyers of these credits, could save billions thanks to looser rules.
- Rivian said credits made up 6.5% of its revenue this year, while Lucid noted they represent a “significant share” of theirs.
- From the chaos of Elon Musk firing Tesla’s entire Supercharger team, a new EV charging startup has emerged. Hubber, founded by ex-Tesla talent, is focused on solving one of the industry’s biggest bottlenecks: fast charging for urban taxis and delivery fleets.
- Former Tesla leads Harry Fox, Connor Selwood, and Hugh Leckie rolled out 100 Supercharger sites before launching Hubber.
- The company targets urban “charging deserts,” converting warehouses and gas stations into high-throughput hubs.
- Taxis and ride-hailing vehicles charge up to 5x more often than consumer cars, making access critical.
- Hubber secured £60M (~$81M) in funding, with its first site opening this week in South London.
- “We’re addressing one of the most urgent constraints in the energy transition: the shortage of fast, reliable charging in major cities,” Hubber states.
- CEO confidence is staging a rebound. After a brutal second quarter, execs are signaling less panic about recession and a more stable outlook for their industries, though concerns about labor, wages, and costs remain front and center.
- The confidence index rose to 49 in Q3, up from 34 in Q2.
- Recession fears fell sharply: 36% expect one in the next 12–18 months, compared to 83% last quarter.
- Job outlook flipped, with 34% of CEOs planning cuts vs. 27% planning to hire — the first net negative since 2020.
- Most CEOs still plan to raise wages 3%+ in the next year, even as they freeze capital spending.
- Cost pressure is highest from suppliers (71%), materials (64%), and tech (63%), pushing many to boost productivity through automation and upskilling.
- “CEO confidence recovered… but fell short of signaling a return to optimism,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior e
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