Bubbles don’t start with hype.
They start with money that was never earned through prior production.
Frank Shostak walks us through the entire chain: how warehouse receipts became fiat, how suspension of redemption became “monetary policy,” how lowering interest rates without prior savings fakes a signal that society has become more future-oriented, and how that fake signal lengthens the structure of production until the subsistence fund is eaten and the whole thing collapses under its own weight.
Most analysts cheer when earnings beat.
Austrians ask one question: is this activity sustainable without continued money-printing?
If the answer is no, it’s a bubble — no matter how efficient the company looks.
This episode is the cleanest explanation you will hear in 2025 of why the current tech/AI boom is not “different” — it is the latest iteration of the same central-bank playbook that gave us tulips, dot-com, and housing.
John R. Boyd's Conceptual Spiral was originally titled No Way Out. In his own words:
“There is no way out unless we can eliminate the features just cited. Since we don’t know how to do this, we must continue the whirl of reorientation…”
March 25, 2025
Find us on X. @NoWayOutcast
Substack: The Whirl of ReOrientation
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