McNally Money dives into Bitcoin miners' market caps, HODL positions, mNAV premiums, and live mining margins to understand why miners are undervalued compared to Bitcoin treasury companies.
• Bitcoin shows resilience after the Trump/Elon news, recovering to $108,000 over the weekend
• Miners showing a mixed trading day despite Bitcoin strength
• MicroStrategy (MSTR) trades at a 1.87x premium to its Bitcoin holdings while miners trade at or near their HODL value
• If miners received the same mNAV premium as Strategy, Marathon's market cap would nearly double to $10.1 billion
• Wall Street remains skeptical of mining economics due to inconsistent profitability and business decisions
• Q2 looking positive with Bitcoin up $25,000 since Q1, potentially adding $1.2B to Marathon's income statement through FASB accounting
• Live miner margins show Iren and Cipher leading with 75-77% gross margins
• Energy costs are just one component - compensation and G&A expenses often push miners into unprofitability
• Hive working to reduce power costs from 7.5¢ to 4.5¢ per kWh by leveraging Paraguay facilities
• Miners must prepare for the 2028 halving which will double energy costs per Bitcoin
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