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This week Brian talks about how March was a volatile month, but seasonality patterns prevailed, as stocks stuck to the script of back half outperformance. April seasonality trends suggest the melt up could continue. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has posted average and median April returns of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively.
Historical return progressions for April show a strong first half of the month. During the first 12 trading days, the S&P 500 has historically climbed 1.4%, capturing the majority of the gains for the month. The market avoided breaking below the December lows this quarter, triggering a bullish signal on the December Low indicator.
Chart: S&P 500 Daily March Progression
Chart: S&P 500 Monthly Returns
Chart: S&P 500 Daily April Progression
Chart: December Lows Indicator
Tracking # 1-05366146, 424964-1
