Description

In the first episode back of Oil Insights for 2025, host Harry Tchilinguirian, Group Head of Research at Onyx Capital Group, is joined by Research Associates Martha Dowding, Vincent Wu, and Mita Chaturvedi. Together, they analyse the buoyancy of Brent oil futures in early 2025, currently trading in the high $70/bbl, amidst a weak fundamental outlook for 2025.

The discussion explores key factors driving recent market trends, including:

• The reversal of risk-taker positioning and the resurgence of long exposure among money managers.
• Seasonal demand spikes for heating fuels and strong physical markets in the Middle East and Asia.
• Supply-side disruptions, including U.S. offshore drilling bans and escalated sanctions on Russian and Iranian crude exports.
• Broader macroeconomic risks, including geopolitical uncertainty with Donald Trump’s inauguration and its potential impact on global oil flows.

With Brent futures rallying into 2025 and significant backwardation observed in the market, this episode dives deep into the dynamics influencing prices and the outlook for the year ahead.