In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Group CEO Greg Newman is back alongside Research Associate Martha Dowding and Research Analyst Will Cunliffe to break down the oil market’s summer reset following the “12-day war” shock. With volumes and conviction draining out of the system, the team explores whether the return to calm signals a true inflexion point - or just the eye of the storm.
This week’s discussion dives into:
• OPEC’s latest move: why a larger-than-expected paper unwind didn’t shake the market - and what the Saudi OSP hike is really signalling
• China’s quiet buying spree, refinery margins at record highs, and what they reveal about demand
• Europe’s extreme weather: how heatwaves are throttling refinery output and driving distillate cracks skyward
• Macro mayhem: the U.S. dollar's strange new correlation with oil, Trump’s tariff chaos, and signs of a bearish shift in U.S. economic leadership
• Gasoline’s fade: why cracks are slipping even in peak summer, and whether the distillate rally is now overcooked
• UK pump prices are rising again - what the forward curve tells us about what you’ll pay next
• The Gold Rush and the Widowmaker: who made money in the Brent time spreads, and who got burned in the gasoline-gas oil spread unwind
Want to trade?
Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 1st July, 2025.
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👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
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