Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Intro
0:40 Corn and Soybean Bounce
2:00 Hot and Dry
3:59 The Funds
6:11 USDA Preview
7:40 Brazil Harvest
8:52 Record-High Stock Market
11:24 Flash Sale
🎥 Corn & Soybeans Bounce Back + USDA Reports & Brazil Harvest Update! 🌽📈🌎
👋 Hey there, grain market watchers! In this video, we’re covering all the BIG moves from Friday’s trade, including a nice rebound in corn and soybean futures, updates from the USDA, and what’s happening with Brazil’s delayed safrinha corn harvest. Let’s dive in! 👇
🌽 Grain Markets Rebound
After tagging multi-month lows earlier this week, Dec25 corn climbed back 6¢ to $4.27/bu, while Nov25 soybeans added ~8¢ to settle near $10.25/bu.
✅ Improved US–China trade sentiment
📉 Weakening US dollar
📊 Stock market rally
☀️ Corn Belt Weather Outlook
The 7-day outlook calls for minimal rain across key US growing areas.
📍 Illinois, southern Iowa, and Indiana especially dry
🔥 Temps expected to run 2.9°F above normal (CropProphet)
🌧️ Long-range models hint at more rain—but will it be enough?
💰 Fund Positioning (CFTC)
"The Funds" are still bearish:
🔻 Sold 6k corn contracts last week
📉 Total of 321k corn contracts sold since mid-April
🌱 Net sellers of 27k soybeans
🌾 Net buyers of 10k SRW wheat
📊 USDA Reports Drop at 11am CST
Planted Acreage & Quarterly Stocks on deck!
🌽 Corn acreage expected slightly higher vs. March
🌱 Soybean acreage likely to rise too
📉 Corn stocks seen down ~7% YoY
📈 Soy stocks up 1%—a 5-year high
🌾 Wheat stocks could be up 20%!
🇧🇷 Brazil’s Safrinha Corn Delayed
Harvest is way behind:
🕐 Just 19.5% harvested vs. 47% last year
🌧️ Wet April/May = soggy fields, high moisture
📦 Slower progress, but record crop of 103.2mmt still expected
📈 Equity Markets Soar
🚀 S&P 500 closes at an all-time high (6,173)
📊 Nasdaq & Dow also post gains
💬 Investors growing used to Trump’s trade strategy
💵 Fed hints at possible rate cuts = bullish sentiment
🫘 Soybean Flash Sale to Mexico!
📦 119,746mt (4 mil bushels) sold
📅 Delivery in 2024/25 marketing year
📈 Soybean sales up 11% YoY so far!
📢 Don’t forget to LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE 🔔, and drop a comment with your thoughts on the upcoming USDA reports!
🌱 Stay smart. Stay informed. Stay hedged. 💼📉
