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0:00 The Biggest / The Largest
1:28 North Dakota Soybean Mess
5:06 WSJ Farm Piece
7:59 Brazil Corn Update
9:22 Crop Ratings
12:26 Grain Shipments
🌎 China Trade War Pressures Soybeans
The ongoing trade war with China continues to squeeze US soybean demand and crush basis levels. 🚢 With no Chinese buying, Northern Plains farmers face cash bids under $9/bu as PNW export demand dries up. Elevators are slashing bids, leaving some of the weakest basis since 2018.
📉 Market Stress & Farmer Struggles
The Wall Street Journal highlights farmer challenges: record crops 🌽🌱 but poor prices and rising costs mean profits are slim to none. Analysts warn breakeven corn prices could rise toward $4.66–$4.94/bu next year. Relief may hinge on the new Farm Bill or the $59B farm safety net in the One Big Beautiful Bill.
🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Update
Brazil’s second corn harvest is 98% complete, with slow farmer selling and strong domestic demand. Early planting of next year’s crop is slightly behind schedule, but forecasts call for favorable rains. US corn remains cheaper by $9/ton on the global market, keeping exports competitive.
🌽 US Crop Conditions
Corn: 71% good/excellent 👍 (2nd best in 10 years)
Soybeans: 69% good/excellent 🌱 (best since 2020)
Spring wheat: 49% good/excellent, well below average ❌
Winter wheat harvest: 98% complete ✅
🚢 Export Inspections
Corn: 51M bu (+39% YoY)
Soybeans: 14M bu (down from last week)
Wheat: 35M bu (+71% YoY)
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