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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾 StoneX US Crop Estimates
Yesterday, the well-followed private group, StoneX, released new US crop estimates based on a customer survey:
Corn Yield: 182.3 bpa (USDA: 181.0 bpa)
Corn Crop: 15.2 billion bushels (USDA: 15.1 billion bushels)
Soybean Yield: 52.6 bpa (USDA: 52.0 bpa)
Soybean Crop: 4.48 billion bushels (USDA: 4.43 billion bushels)
🗺️ See graphic below for the state-by-state breakdown.
📉 US Corn Export Sales
Last week, US corn export sales were poor, hitting a marketing-year low:
Net Corn Sales: 167,900mt (7 million bushels)
Comparison: -49% from the previous week, -60% from the prior 4-week average
Largest Buyer: Mexico
📈 Net soybean sales exceeded expectations:
Net Soybean Sales: 376,400mt (14 million bushels)
Comparison: Significantly up from the previous week and prior 4-week average
Largest Buyer: Germany
📊 Net wheat sales were near the lower end of expectations:
Net Wheat Sales: 286,600mt (11 million bushels)
Comparison: -7% from the previous week, -41% from the prior 4-week average
Largest Buyer: Indonesia
🌱 USDA Flash Sale & Drought Monitor
The USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans on Thursday:
Sale to China: 132,000mt (5 million bushels) for 2024/2025 marketing year
Year-to-Date: China has made two flash sales totaling 264,000mt (10 million bushels)
The weekly drought monitor data indicated limited rainfall across the Corn Belt, worsening drought conditions.
Drought Impact:
Corn: 5%
Soybeans: 5%
Winter Wheat: 32%
Spring Wheat: 16%
Cattle: 15%
🐄 Cattle Prices & Market Concerns
Live and feeder cattle prices fell sharply due to fund selling, weakening consumer demand, and economic concerns:
September Feeder Cattle: -2.1%
October Live Cattle: -1.7%
Boxed Beef: Choice cutout fell $2/cwt to $312.79/cwt
Despite the futures decline, cash cattle prices have been steady.
📉 Stock Market & Economic Indicators
Recession fears sent the stock market tumbling:
Dow Jones: -1.2%
S&P 500: -1.4%
Nasdaq: -2.3%
10-Year Treasury Yield: Fell below 4% for the first time since February
Jobless Claims: Highest level in eleven months
US Manufacturing Activity: Contracted last month, hitting an eight-month low
💬 Stay informed! Don't forget to subscribe and share your thoughts in the comments below. Keeping up with these updates is crucial for staying ahead in the market! 📊📉
