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0:00 Soybean Farmers Need a Trade Deal
3:50 Crop Tour Day 2
8:29 Eastern Corn Belt Dryness
10:36 "Small" Refinery Exemptions
12:28 Brazil Soy Cartel
13:43 Flash Sale
🌱 Soybean Farmers Sound the Alarm
The American Soybean Association is urging President Trump to secure a trade deal with China. In a letter to the White House, the ASA president warned that growers are on the brink of a financial crisis 🚨. With zero new crop soybean sales to China, export commitments are the second-lowest in a decade. Normally, China buys about 14% of its US soybean needs before harvest—but not this year. If China stays out, no other buyers can fill the gap. 📉
🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results
Scouts released their Indiana & Nebraska findings yesterday:
Indiana corn yield pegged at 193.8 bpa, a new tour record 🌟
Nebraska corn yield at 179.5 bpa, the best in 4 years 🌽
Soybean pod counts mixed: Indiana slightly lower vs. last year, Nebraska up 15%—a record 🚀
☀️ Dry Eastern Corn Belt
Large areas of IL, IN, MO, and OH are bone dry 🌵. Temps well above normal, no rain in the 10-day forecast. One or two timely showers could swing soybean yields 10–20 bpa. Corn grain fill is also at risk.
⚡ EPA Biofuel Waiver Watch
Nearly 200 exemption requests are waiting on an EPA ruling this week. A big approval could crush biofuel demand and weaken RIN prices. A smaller approval could boost demand. Expect an appeals battle no matter what. ⚖️
🌎 Brazil Soy Cartel Probe
Brazil’s antitrust regulator is investigating the long-standing Soy Moratorium, which bans purchases of soybeans grown on deforested Amazon land. The probe targets 30 traders, including ADM & Cargill. Enforcement of the pact is suspended while the case plays out. 🌳
🇲🇽 Flash Soybean Sale
US exporters sold 228,606mt (8 mil bu) of soybeans to Mexico this week. Even so, new-crop sales are still down 20% vs. last year.
