Almost everyone, including Democrats, were expecting last Tuesday’s midterm election results to heavily favor Republicans. Many predicted a “red wave” where they would pick up 50-60 seats in the House and 3-4 in the Senate. Joe Rogan said the red wave that is coming will be like the elevator doors opening in the horror film The Shining. Nate Silver from 538, who analyzes all of the major polls and comes up with an average, projected that Republicans had a 84% chance of winning the House and a 60% chance of taking over in the Senate. Five days after the election, both chambers are still in question. The results somewhat defy historical precedents and conventional thinking. The party not in the White House almost always dominates the midterm elections. Voters historically have shown a preference for power to be split between both parties. In fact, there have been only three occasions since FDR where this has not happened. High inflation and a low approval rating for the president made it even more likely that Republicans would win the large majority of contested races. That didn’t happen, and practically everyone is dissecting what actually occurred and why.
