The future isn’t hiding in forecasts or trend reports. It’s already standing in front of us.
In this special episode, Graeme Codrington and Dean Van Leeuwen examine the grey elephants already reshaping leadership, strategy, and society - highly probable, high-impact forces that are now moving from theory into reality.
From human enhancement to climate-driven insurance collapse, antimicrobial resistance and AI-driven deception to fragile tech investment models and an increasingly multipolar world, this episode challenges leaders to abandon passive optimism and adopt deliberate action.
The message is clear: 2026 won’t reward those who wait.
But it will reward those who recognise what’s already here - and respond decisively.
Key takeaways -
🐘 The Grey Elephant mindset
- Grey elephants aren’t surprises - they’re obvious forces we avoid discussing.
- 2026 will reward leaders who are conscious, decisive, and proactive, even if decisions aren’t perfect.
🏟️ Enhanced Games & human augmentation
- A proposed 2026 sporting event where performance enhancement is transparent and allowed.
- Less about sport, more about a shift from paternalism → autonomy and changing rules of competition.
- A signal for societal fractures and new definitions of “fairness”.
🌍 Climate change meets insurance reality
- Insurers quietly withdrawing from high-risk regions or pricing cover out of reach.
- Knock-on effects: housing markets, migration, supply chains, local government finances.
- Leaders should watch re-insurance markets closely.
🦠 Superbugs & antimicrobial resistance
- Already causing ~1M deaths per year-and rising.
- An “unsexy” crisis with huge implications for healthcare, productivity, and mortality.
- A massive blind spot for governments, investors, and businesses alike.
🤖 AI fakery & cybersecurity
- In 2026, trust collapses: voices, faces, video, and audio can all be faked.
- The question is no longer “Can we trust?” but “How do we operate when we can’t?”
- Opportunity lies in verification, design, and new trust infrastructures.
🧠 Human connection as a superpower
- As AI intelligence accelerates, human consciousness-empathy, judgement, ethics-becomes scarce and valuable.
- Leaders should ask two questions:
- Where can AI drive efficiency?
- Where does being human create competitive advantage?
📉 The AI investment bubble
- Not an AI collapse-but potential turbulence in the financial plumbing behind big tech.
- Circular financing, GPU economics, and concentrated risk could cause a market shock in 2026.
🌐 Multipolar geopolitics
- The post-WWII order is fragmenting faster than many expected.
- New alliances, broken assumptions, and uncomfortable moral trade-offs are emerging.
- Businesses must scenario-plan for worlds that once felt unthinkable.
💡 Reasons for optimism
- Amid disruption, medical breakthroughs are accelerating.
- Cancer vaccines and other major advances could define the upside of 2026.
Thanks to Lee, Philippa, Jude, Darren and Nasreen for their contributions to this episode.
Elephants in the Boardroom is powered by Achilles.
Connect with Graeme and...
