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Description

Will the global CPI slowdown continue? Or will it rebound?

Global Markets

Global CPI saw 2nd monthly uptick in August, DM remains below Global; DM and EM are now on the rise

• Economies across the world have a GDP of about US$97trn and an average CPI of 5.1%
• DM has US$55trn GDP, and CPI was 4.3%
• EM has US$42trn GDP, and CPI was 6.1%

World CPI was 5.1%, down 3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.3ppt, a 2nd monthly uptick

• DM CPI was 4.3%, down 3.3 ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.2ppts
• It has moved from a 0.5ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 0.8ppt discount
• EM CPI was 6.1%, down 2.6 ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.6ppts
• It has moved from a 0.7ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1ppt premium

Developed Regions

DM Americas CPI had 2nd uptick, DM Europe continues its slide, while DM Pacific stays flat at 4%

• DM Americas is the largest region, with US$28trn of GDP and 3.7% CPI
• DM Europe has US$15trn GDP and 5.2% CPI
• DM Pacific has US$8trn GDP and 3.9% CPI

DM Americas CPI had 2nd uptick, DM Europe continues its slide, while DM Pacific stays flat at 4%

• DM Americas CPI was 3.7%, down 4.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4ppts
• It has moved from a 0.1ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.4ppt discount
• DM Europe CPI was 5.2%, down 2.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1ppts
• It has moved from a 0.1ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 0.1ppt premium
• DM Pacific CPI was 3.9%, down 0.3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1ppts
• It has moved from a 3.9ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 1.2ppt discount

Emerging Regions

CPI in EM Asia and Frontier markets re-igniting, EM Europe continues its rise

• EM Americas had a small GDP of US$4trn and CPI of 5.4%
• EM Asia had a massive GDP of US$29trn and 1.4% CPI
• EM Europe had a small US$4trn GDP and a massive 16.5% CPI
• Emerging Middle East & Africa had a tiny US$2trn GDP and a high 10.9% CPI
• Frontier markets had a US$3trn GDP and an extremely high 32.3% CPI

CPI in EM Asia and Frontier markets re-igniting, EM Europe continues its rise

• EM Americas CPI was 5.4%, down 3.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.1ppts
• It has moved from a 1.3ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 0.3ppt premium
• EM Asia CPI was 1.4%, down 2.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.3ppts
• It has moved from a 4.5ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 3.6ppt discount
• EM Europe CPI was 16.5%, down 11.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 2.1ppts
• It has moved from a 20.3ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 11.4ppt premium
• EM ME&A CPI was 10.9%, up 3.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flat
• It has moved from a 1ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 5.8ppt premium
• Frontier CPI was 32.3%, up 6ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 2ppts
• It has moved from a 18.3ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 27.2ppt premium

Developed Countries

2nd US CPI uptick; strong 1st uptick in France; Japan and UK steady slide; Germany flat

• Top five DM countries
• US GDP was US$25trn, CPI of 3.7%
• Japan US$5trn and 3.1% CPI
• Germany US$4.3trn and 6.2% CPI
• UK: US$3.4trn, 6.8%
• France: US$3trn/4.6%
• USA CPI was 3.7%, down 4.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4ppts
• It has moved from a 0.2ppts...