In this episode of Investment Strategy Made Simple (ISMS), Andrew and Larry discuss a chapter of Larry’s book Investment Mistakes Even Smart Investors Make and How to Avoid Them. In this first series of many, they talk about mistake number one: Are you overconfident in your skills?
LEARNING: Don’t be overconfident. Look for value-added information when researching an investment.
“When you trade, understand that you’re competing against the market’s collective wisdom.”
Larry Swedroe
In today’s episode, Andrew chats with Larry Swedroe, head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.
Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today Andrew and Larry discuss a chapter of Larry’s book Investment Mistakes Even Smart Investors Make and How to Avoid Them. In this first series of many, they talk about mistake number one: Are you overconfident in your skills?
There’s a lot of research showing that human beings tend to be overconfident in their skills. If you ask people, are you liked by others more than the average person? Are you a better lover than the average person? Can you drive better than the average person? It doesn’t matter what the question is; the answer from a vast majority is that they think they’re better than the average person. According to Larry, this is actually a good healthy thing. Imagine getting up daily, looking in the mirror, seeing yourself, and thinking you’re dumb, ugly, stupid, and nobody likes you. You’d live a sad life. So it’s good to feel better about yourself as long as you don’t make mistakes.
Larry says that the market is made up of all types of investors. If some investors are going to outperform, then some investors must underperform. The market must have victims to exploit. Most investors tend to be overconfident and think they’re a lot smarter than the average person, so they will be able to control them. But according to evidence, that’s dead wrong because people are not competing one-on-one.
Women are not better at stock picking than men. The stocks they buy perform just as poorly as those that men buy. And the stocks they sell go on to outperform in equal measure. However, men have overconfidence in skills they don’t have, while women simply know better. They don’t overestimate their skills as much as men do, so they trade less and have fewer turnover costs, resulting in better returns. Interestingly, married women do worse than single women because they get influenced by their husbands, while married men do better than single men because they have the influence of the sage counsel of their spouses.
Generally, the more knowledge you have, the wiser you become. But the game of investing is very different than, say, the game of tennis, where you’re playing one-on-one. During a one-on-one match, whether tennis, chess, or any other similar game, minor differences in skill lead to considerable differences in outcome. As the competition gets more challenging, it becomes harder to win. And luck becomes more...