7/10/20
DISCLAIMER:
I am not an Academic who knows and uses all the “correct” terms, but an end user who focuses on pragmatic solutions.
Army Officer w/ 14 years of experience in the Corps of Engineers, Tactical Formations (Construction & Combat Engineers), who grew up on a farm in West Virginia
BS Degree in Horticulture, MS in Environmental Engineering, Earned the Project Management Professional from Project Management Institute
References
AR 385-10 (The Army Safety Program)
ATP 5-19 (Risk Management)
DA-PAM 385-10 (Risk Management)
PMBOK Guide 6th Edition (Project Management Institute)
Knowledge Pyramid
Leaders Make Decisions
Failure to Decide is a Decision
Decisions are driven by
Data gathered
Information Synthesized
Knowledge through Analysis
Wisdom from Experience
Leaders own the Results (and Risks)
Subordinates don’t own Failures!!!
All Decisions are made in Data & Information Gaps
Wisdom fills in some Gaps
Remaining Gaps result in RISK and FEAR
Fear- unpleasant emotion caused by a belief of danger that will lead to pain/harm
Risk- Probability of event x Effect of result
Neither positive or negative
Involves exposure to danger
Decisions can be based on Fear or Risk- This is a CHOICE!!!
Fear focuses on Emotion
Risk focuses on Options
What is Risk???
Probability or Frequency of an event
Quantitative- a Percentage
Qualitative- Unlikely, Seldom, Occasional, Likely, Frequent
Effect if event occurs
Quantitative- Money, Lives, Equipment, etc.
Qualitative- Negligible, Moderate, Critical, Catastrophic, Severity
Output of equation
Quantitative- Money, Lives, Equipment, etc.
Qualitative- Low, Medium, High, Extremely High
Risk Tolerance
Personal versus Organizational
Cultural versus Currency
Risk Based Decision Making
Decision Making- Process of making choices by gathering Information, assessing Courses of Actions, and making a final decision
Risk Based- Process of making decisions through evaluating each COA through the lens of its Risk to the organization.
How?
Risk Analysis of each COA
Risk Assessment and possible Mitigation measures
Comparison of Risks (Quantitative and Qualitative)
Risk Management- 5 Step Process
Risk Assessment
Identify Risks (Hazards)
Assess Initial Risk Levels
Risk Management
Develop Potential Controls/Make Decisions
Implement Controls
Supervise & Evaluate
Risk Response Strategies
Threats
Escalate- Send to Higher HQ
Avoid- Make change to eliminate probability of Risk to Zero
Transfer- Shift to another organization
Mitigate- Reduce probability or effect
Accept- Handle when occurs
Opportunities
Escalate- Send to Higher HQ
Exploit- Make change to increase probability to near 100%
Share- Share with another organization
Enhance- Increase probability or effect
Accept- Handle when occurs
