🎙 Episode Summary:
This week, Simon unpacks Alphabet's surprisingly cheap valuation, troubling US economic data, South African CPI figures, Trump's trade mess, and the implications of Aspen's customer fallout. Plus, he previews the Berkshire AGM and upcoming JustOneLap events.
📉 US Economic Data Shock
Q1 GDP: Expected +0.2%, came in at –0.3% 😬
Imports surged 40%, skewing GDP down
Retail inventories and trade balance signal deeper issues
PCI inflation at 1.8% vs. 1.2% expected
Recession fears intensify
US GDP Q1 2025
🇺🇸 Trump's 100-Day Trade Tangle
Trump promised 90 trade deals in 90 days — none signed yet
India might come to the table soon
Tariff chaos continues, shelves may empty by July
Xi Jinping not engaging — trade uncertainty remains high
📊 Alphabet (GOOGL) is Looking CHEAP
PE under 20, forward PE ~17 🔥
YouTube: $9B in rev, larger TV share than Netflix
Cloud turning profitable; Waymo surging
Risks: Antitrust cases, weakened core search, AI competition
Analyst sentiment: 13 Strong Buys, 39 Buys, 12 Holds
Price targets: Avg $202, High $240
🧠 Search Wars: Google vs. AI
Google Search = cluttered & ad-heavy
Simon prefers Perplexity & ChatGPT for clean, accurate info
Questions around ad revenue in AI-driven search era
💥 Aspen: Trust Broken
Lost a major take-or-pay client 🧪
Share down ~33%; questions around facility utilization
Replacing lost volume could take 12–18 months
Confidence in management fading
Aspen | Weekly 29 April 2025
📉 SA CPI Drops to 2.7%
Well below target band midpoint of 4.5%
Inflation lowest since mid-2020
Will SARB cut rates? Depends on FOMC outcome on 7 May
📚 Budget 3.0 Incoming
New budget after VAT hike rejection
21 May – Stay tuned for more policy drama
🏛 Berkshire Hathaway AGM
First meeting without Charlie Munger
Warren Buffett expected to address investment outlooks and succession
All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
