Government bonds saw one of the single greatest drops since their inception and international stocks were adversely affected by foreign conflicts. It was a challenging year to say the least. But, we firmly believe that a well-researched strategy of diversification (across asset classes of all types) can help investors endure these down market periods. Listen to the second half of our "2022 Year-in-Perspective" for a detailed review of market performance last year, and, discussion of our hopes for 2023.
If you have any questions or would like more information, reach out to us at https://symmetrypartners.com/contact-us/
You can also find us on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and LinkedIn. As always, we remain invested in your goals.
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Welcome back
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listeners. This is your host Tom romano, and thank you
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for joining us for part two of our 2022 year
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in perspective. Once again, we're joined by Casey Dillon
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to give us some insights on the markets and
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how they affected investors throughout the course
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of the previous year. Thanks for joining us again. Casey talked us
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a little bit. How did the markets react right? I mean we saw both
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equities and fixed income have negative
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performance for the year. And what
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are we seeing from rates of
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return from the US as well as abroad?
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Yeah, well the the sharp increase
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in rates reverberated across
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markets everything from stocks to
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bonds to real estate to commodities.
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And in what we observed was
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sort of some interesting things
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again threads that
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We'd seen coming into 2022 for instance. The
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the growth of tech stocks
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becoming a huge portion of
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the sort of the the US market,
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right? So if you you think about the Fang stocks Facebook
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Apple Amazon Netflix, Google
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They accounted for almost 25% of
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the market cap of the US.
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Coming into 2022 and they were
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the sort of those growth oriented tech stocks were the drivers
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of the tremendous returns
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that the market had given kind of the past five years.
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Or even ten and and to the
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point that there were a lot of folks who looked at that and said,
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hey, look are we out over our skis here this feels
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very much. Like we're entering into kind
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of frothy Tech bubble territory
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and there were sort of the Hallmark things
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trappings of
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that that were that felt very familiar to
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those of us who lived through the first tech bubble. So you saw things
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like the mean stocks right with games stop
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and Best Buy and sort of, you know day trading.
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To to the overuse of Leverage on these
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and a lot of that was kind of being driven by
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this idea that you know coming out of the pandemic these
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growth stocks. This was the story. These were the story
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stocks that people were gravitating to so so what happens people
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buy them up they to the point where the valuation
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no longer makes sense. If you
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take a step back and say well what am I buying right at
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the end of the day?
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Investing is about purchasing future cash flows. And
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so you arrive at a price today based on
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some assessment of what you think those future cash flows
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are and what you're willing to pay for those.
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If you get to a point where you're paying so much today for
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you know, this idea of
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heightened future cash flows at some
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point you enter into a world where?
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To to even substantiate the price you're willing
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to pay today. You have to have Perfection on those future casuals
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going forward and the world doesn't work that way right? You
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have a situation where Russia invades Ukraine, you have
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a situation where you have, you know pandemics and Avian flues
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and things like that. So the world is just in that
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need a place where you can predict Perfection
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for cash flows for things like yeah, Facebook
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Apple Amazon, and in fact what we see
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The the case for Perfection fell off the cliff in 2022
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because the the earnings for
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those companies started to turn around and go the other way and that
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caused Market participants to rethink the
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valuations that they were giving them and what
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we observed was the Fang stocks lost
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collectively over three trillion dollars in market
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cap over the course of the year. So that that
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was a homos 25% of the total market cap lost in
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the US was attributable to those handful of stocks
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right those those Fang stocks that you allude to. I mean
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at some point they were you know, collectively very
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large percentage of common us benchmarks
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like like the S&P 500, right they've been
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inflated and so when there is that correction, you're gonna
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feel it across the the industry across the all
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the markets rather. So I think that makes a lot of
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sense a lot of our investors are evidence-based investors,
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you know, Casey you and I share the same investment philosophy
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of buying hold.
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Long-term taking a factor approach to investment management.
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What how did factor-based investors or
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evidence-based investors fair in 2022?
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Yeah, so if you think about what what
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are you doing? If you're a factor investor? Well yours, you're
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lazing in on specific characteristics of
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risk to invest in and those
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character those risk factors those characteristics of
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risk that that you have
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been identified by way of academic research to have a
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premium or return
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associated with that that characteristics of risk.
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So you're trying to figure it
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out and say okay, you know, the the tech stocks
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is great example, the thing stocks if things become exceedingly
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expensive. Well, what does that
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do? Then to the cheaper stocks the stocks that aren't the
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thing stocks, right? How are they priced relative
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to these these growthier stocks?
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What historically we've observed is that
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there is a premium associated with valuation. Meaning
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the cheaper stocks tend to outperform the
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more expensive stocks over time.
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And so you enter into a world where the Fang stocks are
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ripping the cover off the ball and they're kind of the expensive growth stocks and
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by comparison, the the cheaper value
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stocks just aren't keeping up with that on the upswing and
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you got to a point where the
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market was collectively the one of
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the most expensive markets in history. Meaning that
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the
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thighs and weight of those Bank stocks across
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the market
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and how expensive they become
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lifted the whole market up
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But the spread between the growth stocks and
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the value stocks became as wide as we've
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seen really since the tech bubble right going back to
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that that the the value stocks were
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just so unloved and so beaten down my price relative to
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the tech stocks. So if you're
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a value investor rolling into a year like
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2022 when the the Fang
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stock bubble sort of starts to become deflated and
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those prices start to to come
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back to the mean if
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you will.
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One consequent of that is is that on a relative
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basis those cheaper value stocks start to perform better. Even
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if the market is going down as a whole the value
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stocks tend to hold up better because it's the
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top end of the market the expensive end. That's moving more.
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And so we we saw that and in 2022 value
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stocks actually did quite well, they did exceedingly well
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relative to grow stocks large
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cap value outperform large cap growth handily
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for 2022. And
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so if you're a value a factor investor with
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a tilt towards value that was really helping your portfolio in
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2022. We also saw factors like
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low volatility or
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associated with lower volatility stocks
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doing well across the
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board minimum volatility globally and
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also here in the United States. So those stocks that tend
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to be less volatile than the market in general.
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There's a return premium associated with that and of course
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in a year that highly volatile like 2022 those less
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volatile stocks had a premium associated with
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them relative to everything else. And if you're a factor investor who
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has a tilt towards minimum volatility you you reap the
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reward on that but it is as we sort of
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break out of kind of globally or looking at the US things like
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small cap stocks and Emerging Markets continue to do quite well.
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So if you had a tilt towards size in your
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Factor tilt that that paid off
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for you on a more broadly Diversified basis.
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And so you you started to see that these these
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Factor tilts in at
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a time when normally you would think a look
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if it's a risk off environment. Well Factor, it is
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a risk anyway, right? So you might
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expect for the factor exposures to
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be down it and to a degree you're
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right, but they're also relative to the other things that
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they're trading against and in that case they held up
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much better than the market in general.
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And so a broadly based a broad
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Diversified broadly Diversified Factor portfolio
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tended to do better on both a relative
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and absolute basis than the market in general
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did and certainly more so than the Contra points
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of that things like growth or more volatile stocks or you
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know, large cabs. So so being a factor investor
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really was beneficial in
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many regards in 2022.
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Yeah, we've seen that in the performance of a number of
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portfolios that that you and I have talked about over the
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years that you know, a diversified portfolio factors in
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2022 albeit was
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still in the red at the end of the year, but not nearly as as bad
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as some of those market like portfolios
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or benchmarks that we've seen. I do
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want to hang on the value conversation a little bit. Right?
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We you know value as a factor you and
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I share the the belief that investors should have exposure
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to value in their portfolios. And I know
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over the years Casey you and I have had shared a cocktail
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discussing. What was the underperformance of
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value for a number of years. We saw the rise
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of the things which we discussed earlier and for
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Value investors. I think that they were
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someone Vindicated in 2020 to but for
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those are out there listening, you know with this outperformance
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of value. Is there still room for Value to
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continue to outperform in 2023?
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You know, I love the quote history rare
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rarely repeats itself, but it often Rhymes because
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I think that that's incredibly true
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across markets in particular and I
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heard an a quote that I think shed some light on that and it's
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not that history repeats itself. It's that people
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repeat themself, right? And so if you think about markets are
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made up of people making purchasing and
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selling decisions across the board it it's it
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should be no surprise that in a similar
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type of dynamic or environment.
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People might Chase things like large cab growth
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tech stocks, right? And so if you look back to
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a time that was very similar to that during the tech bubble where
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you saw again Tech socks become very expensive and
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value stocks kind of be left to languish
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on the sidelines for
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some time when the tech Bubble Burst, right all of
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those growthy tech stocks valuation plummeted
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and value stocks had a tremendous run for several
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years.
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Well, where are we now?
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The we see these these Fang stocks the the air going
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out of them value having a nice run.
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So you might think is the run over. Well, if you
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look at the sort of globally the value spreads.
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So again cheap versus expensive we are still in
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the 90 plus percentile
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meaning it still one of the most expensive markets,
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right? So if we look at the, you
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know, nine out of 10 markets have been cheaper than
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the market that we're in currently even after 2022's price
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decline. So that tells you that value
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stocks, even though they had a tremendous year
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in 2022. The potential is there
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for them to continue to experience this
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reversion to the mean of these expensive stocks
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coming back down and value could have
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a run akin to what we observed post
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the tech bubble in the early 2000 when value
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was really dominant for a
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good three years in the marketplace. Now,
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I'm not suggesting that that it will exactly repeat itself.
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But you see the dynamic there in the case
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to be made for hey, it looks like there's still some fuel for
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this fire.
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And it would not be surprising to continue to
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see value run relative to the the
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more expensive stocks.
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Certainly, and you know, I think it's
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important for our listeners to know we're by no means suggesting people
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should speculate between growth and value. We think that you
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know factors specifically value are our
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long-term Endeavors and investors who maintain that
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exposure tend to do better over time
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is what I'm hearing you say and I
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and I lived through the tech bubble as you did
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and you know, those those years after where value did outperform
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they were still poor years, right 2000
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2001 weren't positive years in
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the market. And do you have any comments on you
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know value kind of shining during those downturns when
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we say values out performing. It doesn't necessarily I mean values positive, right?
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I think this is this the the Crux
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of why it's difficult to be a value investor because
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I mean sexually value investing
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is not hard to get your head around by cheap stuff
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and hold it right like that's not hard from sort
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of a conceptual.
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Went to get the hard part is actually doing it
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and being able to be patient through those
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periods when it doesn't look like
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it's working because those are those come right you
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you have those periods where the the tech bubble
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occurs where the Fang stocks are ripping the cover off the
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ball for five years in a row and your value stocks are languishing.
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Most investors the vast majority of investors cannot
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sit still through that.
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that's why value investing well easy to to
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sort of implement is hard
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to maintain and yet right what
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why do why do folks like you and I gravitate to
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Value as an important element of
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kind of a broad-based factor portfolio because
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the data going back over time
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suggests that if you can be patient
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through those periods when values not working the
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payoff for you when it comes in times
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like after the tech bubble when it comes when it
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comes in times like 2022 the payoff for
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you for being patient through that period
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And maintaining that that value exposure is
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significant enough such that
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over the total holding period you you
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end up ahead of where you might otherwise have been
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had you just had kind of Market level performance right?
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Just just broad beta.
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And so at the end of the day, you know, the question is, how
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do I out? How do I outperform the market? Well, one way to
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help perform. The market over time is to tilt towards
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these characteristics of risk, which have shown over
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time to outperform the market and values
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one of those now what I
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would say Tom is that it's incredibly difficult to just
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be a value investor and that's all you do.
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Which is why it's so beneficial to have a
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blend of factor exposures to have other things
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working when things like value for instance
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aren't so a good example of that is momentum, right? So
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it momentum and value are really nice
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pairing to put together in a portfolio because they're
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negatively correlated meaning when when values down
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momentum tends to be up and vice versa.
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So if the value investor if it's incredibly difficult
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to sit through those periods when value is not doing well with momentum
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exposures you end up
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having things in your portfolio.
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Which are picking up what's working and so in the case of the past five
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years a broad-based?
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Factor multi-factor portfolio would have value stocks
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in it, but it would also have some exposure
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to the fangs because those are
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representing kind of the momentum in the market until you have exposure to
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that and and that becomes an easier portfolio for
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most people to consume and sit through and the
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real magic here is the longer you
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can hold on to any of these Factor exposures. The more
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you have an expectation that you're going to have performance that's
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above Market.
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And and the real challenge for everybody is
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to sit still long enough to reap
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the reward of putting that Capital to risk. So you just trying to
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build a portfolio that people can actually stay in
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through these Market turmoil these ups
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and downs because if they can sit still there, you
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know it a bears make
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money Bulls make money pigs get slaughtered. Right? What does that mean?
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Look regardless of what your philosophy is, if you
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maintain that philosophy eventually the market
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will come around and rotate to you and pay you off for it. If you
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keep jumping from philosophy to philosophy trying to
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chase whatever is in front of you and get those returns. That's when
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you get slaughtered. That's when the cost of
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Trading in and out eats up your returns that
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that's when you're catching a falling knife. That's when
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all of these things that you hear why you might want to
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not want to be a growth investor or a value investor or
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right? All of those things can be true. If you're
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trying to find those things because the timing is is has
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been proven to be elusive if not impossible. So
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picking a philosophy and sticking with
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it as shown consistently over time to to be the way to go and we
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happen to believe in the philosophy of what's been
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shown from the academic research to be these
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characteristics of risk that pay off over time certainly and so
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in a nutshell, it's time in the market versus
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timing. The market is the best course of
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action. I want to hit upon something
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that you're alluding to and that platitude or
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it sounds like a platitude to most investors, especially
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when the markets down right telling them. I'm
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in the market not timing the market that doesn't mean much to somebody
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who's like am I gonna be able to retire?
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Right, but you have to understand where that platitude
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comes from right where where that rule of thumb comes
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from any and it is informed by
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decades upon Decades of observations
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of how markets behave
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and where returns to markets come from. Yeah. That's an excellent
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point. You were alluding to
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diversification Factor diversification but diversification as a whole
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and there's one thing I'd like you to comment on, you
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know, I've been hearing in Reading in popular press and
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in the various industry trade Rags that you know
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diversification didn't work in in 2022. My
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thought on that is that I think it's a misunderstanding of
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how diversification actually works and I'd love to hear your
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thoughts on that. Yeah. So you sort of
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come back to well. What are your expectations? I went
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when when you hear someone like you or
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I say, hey a broadly Diversified portfolio is
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is the starting point for most
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investors like
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Everybody should have if you're going to invest you should do it in a
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fashion that allows you to take advantage of broad-based diversification.
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If your expectation when you hear that is, oh, okay. I'll
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never lose money. Well, no that that's not what we're saying,
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right? The the point of broad-based diversification
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is you're taking off some of the idiosyncratic risk
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of any one kind of investment meaning.
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All I want to invest the only thing I know about is expensive wine
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French wine, right? That's the only thing I know about that.
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The only thing I want to invest in
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So if that's my investment philosophy the risk
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that I have is that the the wine
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market goes away people, you know,
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they're tasting preferences. They no longer want
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to drink expensive wines. We see
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a shift in the in the wine market where French wines are are no
403
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longer as highly valued as California wines, for
404
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instance. And if I've invested in
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a bunch of French wines, just the shift in the market now, I have
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a dramatic impact in my portfolio and or
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you know fires in
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California and drought in France and
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suddenly the wine market has absolutely no
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Supply. And so the
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price of what you're holding goes up dramatically, but then
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when it's gone, it's gone, right and then what do you invest in? So
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so the the risk of investing in any one
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thing you may know that thing inside and out but it's idiosyncratic
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to that thing. You're
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investing in like wine.
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So, you know the idea is with
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diversification. Yeah, okay invest in wine, but while
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you're doing that can we find some other things to invest in that are
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going to behave differently than Wine does
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because
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If the risks come to bear for wine, you don't get wiped out.
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Right. So we want to invest you know in a fashion
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that allows us to sort of achieve these long-term goals without getting
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wiped out along the way. So instead of investing in
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wine. Maybe we invest in, you know,
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small cap stocks in the United States and those are
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gonna look and behave very differently than the wine market.
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And maybe we invest in Emerging Market
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debt because we know that that's gonna
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behave differently than Securities and wine
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and maybe we invest in treasuries and
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maybe right. So as you start to go down that path you look at
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all of the different things you can lay around that are going to behave differently
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from the other things that you're holding. That's not
436
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to say that when a systematic level
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risk comes along like a pandemic or
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Rising interest rates that all of those things aren't
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going to be impacted by them. They will be right your your
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wine your small counts dogs. You're you're
441
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treasuries, right? You're you're emerging market
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that all of those things are gonna be impacted if there are
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issues that are roiling markets across the
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board. And and so if you're expectation going
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into a broadly based Diversified portfolio as I'll
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never lose money, or it'll never go down.
447
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That's the wrong. I would like to disabuse you of that notion.
448
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What you should expect is if any one or two of these things
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are impacted by a risk specific to it.
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I'm not going to be wiped out and that's why I would have a
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broadly based portfolio Diversified portfolio. Now,
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I will say that if a part of your
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diversification are things like Factor exposures. Well, you
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you end up often doing
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better than the market even if the markets down
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and your portfolio is down you end up doing a
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bit better than the market did in general.
458
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And if you look at like a sick just a generic 60 40 portfolio.
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It was one of the worst years on record for.
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1640 board folios
461
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because stocks and bonds both went down
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dramatically in fact bonds had a historically bad year led
463
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by treasuries which had the
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worst year since the you know in 200 and
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something years, right? So a 60 40
466
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a broad base 640 portfolio being down is unusual.
467
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It's Unique to have
468
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that experience, but it's also
469
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not unexpected given the the
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Catalyst for why all of those
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things were down.
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That doesn't mean you abandon that that
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investing discipline. It just means that
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you should expect there are going to be times when broad-based
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diversification isn't going to
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be the thing that saves you from experiencing a
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downmark.
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So it sounds like there's like two two things that you're bringing
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up here, right diversification certainly provides you with some
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protection from concentrated stock concentrated
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industry or even sector right? Like you bring
482
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up wine a great way to sort of
483
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balance that out by maintaining diversification. But however diversification is
484
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not going to necessarily protect you from the natural ebb and
485
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flows of the market, right? Those are gonna continue to happen
486
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but the market risk and I
487
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think you would agree is that that's what rewards investors for deploying
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their Capital into the market. Why would I invest
489
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broadly in you know, the S&P 500 well because
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there's risk associated broadly with the SD, but and
491
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I should be paid for doing so you're absolutely spot on right? Yeah. Why
492
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are we investing in anything because there's risk associated with
493
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it and that risk generates return, right? Yeah risk and return our
494
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absolutely Inseparable and I think it's it behooves investor
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to keep that investors to keep that sort of Mantra in
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mind so Casey, thank you so much for
497
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your comments. I do have
498
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Last question for you, you know, we covered the current events
499
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how that affected the markets, you know investors are
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listeners are looking at the retirement
501
00:24:59.400 --> 00:25:02.500
accounts. They're seeing a lot of red. What advice
502
00:25:02.500 --> 00:25:05.300
would you give investors? What should
503
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they do going into 2023? What are some of the things investors could be
504
00:25:08.100 --> 00:25:11.800
doing now? Well, you know, my my knee jerk
505
00:25:11.800 --> 00:25:14.200
response to that is nothing right. So if you're
506
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if you're a discipline investor maintain that discipline, right?
507
00:25:17.300 --> 00:25:20.600
There's no question 2022 was challenging year
508
00:25:20.600 --> 00:25:23.300
for investors. And there is likely,
509
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you know, these issues that we've been talking about they're not resolved.
510
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Right and in and in fact, there will be other things
511
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that will Royal the markets layered on
512
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top of these like for instance a fight over
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the debt ceiling, right?
514
00:25:37.300 --> 00:25:40.700
So there's likely more turbulence ahead. However, right the
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00:25:40.700 --> 00:25:44.200
the best option for the long-term investor is
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00:25:43.200 --> 00:25:46.300
to find a philosophy that
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00:25:46.300 --> 00:25:49.500
makes sense for them build a portfolio around that and
518
00:25:49.500 --> 00:25:53.100
then maintain the course maintain
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00:25:52.100 --> 00:25:54.200
the discipline.
520
00:25:55.800 --> 00:25:58.300
Through up markets down markets, you know turbulence in
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00:25:58.300 --> 00:26:02.000
the headlines the it's the discipline of maintaining
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00:26:01.200 --> 00:26:04.800
that philosophy over time that is provides the
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00:26:04.800 --> 00:26:07.600
reward for long-term investors and their steadfast
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00:26:07.600 --> 00:26:08.000
patients.
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00:26:08.800 --> 00:26:12.700
Through these short-term Market movements or macroeconomic
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00:26:11.700 --> 00:26:14.300
events are the things
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00:26:14.300 --> 00:26:18.000
that are going to generate returns for them over the next Century, right? That's
528
00:26:17.500 --> 00:26:20.900
it just is what it is. It's what it has been for
529
00:26:20.900 --> 00:26:23.600
those investors who are looking at 2023 here are
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00:26:23.600 --> 00:26:26.400
some statistics. Hopefully that will Empower you to maintain
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00:26:26.400 --> 00:26:30.800
the course over the sort of the past Century
532
00:26:29.800 --> 00:26:32.600
the US has endured 15
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00:26:32.600 --> 00:26:33.600
recessions.
534
00:26:34.500 --> 00:26:37.700
In 11 of the 15 or 73% in
535
00:26:37.700 --> 00:26:37.800
time.
536
00:26:38.400 --> 00:26:41.500
Returns on stocks were positive two years after the
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00:26:41.500 --> 00:26:42.300
recession began.
538
00:26:43.200 --> 00:26:46.900
With an annualized average Market return 7.8% So
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00:26:46.900 --> 00:26:49.800
if you're concern going into 2023 is always
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00:26:49.800 --> 00:26:52.100
it gonna tip into recession. Should we be concerned with
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00:26:52.100 --> 00:26:55.700
what the FED is doing? Are they gonna go too far? My answer to you
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00:26:55.700 --> 00:26:59.100
would be look recessions are not new with the
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00:26:58.100 --> 00:27:00.300
we've experienced them.
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00:27:01.500 --> 00:27:04.300
Over time in fact more frequently than
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00:27:04.300 --> 00:27:07.200
you would think and yet in a vast majority of those
546
00:27:07.200 --> 00:27:10.100
recessions. If you just have the patience to ride through
547
00:27:10.100 --> 00:27:13.400
it you're rewarded on the back end of that to to
548
00:27:13.400 --> 00:27:16.300
the tune of sort of a healthy average annual Market return of
549
00:27:16.300 --> 00:27:16.800
almost 8%
550
00:27:17.200 --> 00:27:20.500
So going into 2023 expect volatility
551
00:27:20.500 --> 00:27:23.300
expect there to be things playing out in the headlines. Do not
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00:27:23.300 --> 00:27:27.000
let that pull you away from the long-term
553
00:27:26.600 --> 00:27:29.800
discipline and know that the the
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00:27:29.800 --> 00:27:33.200
rationale for why you're investing over
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00:27:32.200 --> 00:27:36.400
the long term is sound and
556
00:27:35.400 --> 00:27:38.400
you have expectation that this too
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00:27:38.400 --> 00:27:40.500
shall pass and I'll be rewarded for that patients.
558
00:27:41.300 --> 00:27:44.500
Yeah, absolutely discipline and patience tends to be the biggest Catalyst
559
00:27:44.500 --> 00:27:47.600
for rewards for investors over the long term and going
560
00:27:47.600 --> 00:27:51.000
into 2023, you know investors who might be uneasy
561
00:27:50.500 --> 00:27:54.000
unable to sleep at night concerned about their portfolios.
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00:27:53.300 --> 00:27:56.500
They should go meet with their financial advisor.
563
00:27:56.500 --> 00:27:59.500
Make sure that their current asset allocation is aligned with
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00:27:59.500 --> 00:28:02.200
their financial plan and their long-term goals
565
00:28:02.200 --> 00:28:06.100
and objectives and you know, I think staying
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00:28:05.100 --> 00:28:09.300
the course and remaining disciplined makes the
567
00:28:08.300 --> 00:28:11.700
most sense but making
568
00:28:11.700 --> 00:28:14.500
sure that your portfolio is aligned with what you want to achieve with.
569
00:28:14.500 --> 00:28:17.500
Your hard-earned capital is something investors could
570
00:28:17.500 --> 00:28:20.600
be doing into 2023 and then expect your
571
00:28:20.600 --> 00:28:23.300
advisor say everything's gonna be fine unless there's
572
00:28:23.300 --> 00:28:27.200
some sort of life-changing event that happens with the
573
00:28:26.200 --> 00:28:29.700
investor not necessarily the markets
574
00:28:29.700 --> 00:28:32.100
Casey. Thank you so much for your insights today.
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00:28:32.100 --> 00:28:35.100
It's always a pleasure. We love talking to you and
576
00:28:35.100 --> 00:28:38.000
we look to have you back over the next
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00:28:38.200 --> 00:28:40.700
couple of podcasts and I want to thank all of our listeners out there.
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00:28:41.100 --> 00:28:45.500
Joining us today. Please feel free to access other
579
00:28:45.500 --> 00:28:49.500
podcasts that we have done and they
580
00:28:48.500 --> 00:28:51.300
can be accessed anywhere you get your
581
00:28:51.300 --> 00:28:54.500
podcast. So thanks everyone and we will see you
582
00:28:54.500 --> 00:28:57.900
next time symmetry Partners LLC is an
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00:28:57.900 --> 00:29:00.500
investment advisor firm registered with the Securities
584
00:29:00.500 --> 00:29:03.500
and Exchange Commission The Firm only transacts business
585
00:29:03.500 --> 00:29:06.400
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00:29:06.400 --> 00:29:09.900
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future performance of any specific investment investment strategy
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593
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594
00:29:30.600 --> 00:29:32.700
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595
00:29:33.700 --> 00:29:36.200
As with any investment strategy there is the
596
00:29:36.200 --> 00:29:39.800
possibility of profitability as well as loss due
597
00:29:39.800 --> 00:29:42.500
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598
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