In this episode Canadian bond portfolio manager, Crista Caughlin, and balanced portfolio manager, Steven Visscher discuss Q2's market and economic activity. Topics covered include "Liberation Day's" tariff shocks, central bank policies, inflation, and other themes.
Key Takeaways:
- The announcement and subsequent deferral of sweeping U.S. tariffs caused significant market volatility, with a sharp initial selloff followed by a rapid recovery. The uncertainty around trade policy had a pronounced impact on economic growth expectations and market sentiment.
- The quarter featured slowing growth in both the U.S. and Canada, with notable weakness in consumer spending and business investment. Despite expectations, inflation remained contained, and employment data presented a mixed picture—stronger in the U.S., weaker in Canada.
- Central banks responded differently to domestic economic conditions. The ECB cut rates twice due to weaker growth and contained inflation, while the Fed and Bank of Canada adopted a wait-and-see approach, maintaining a dovish bias but holding rates steady.
- There was a notable reversal in equity performance trends, with international and emerging market equities outperforming U.S. equities. This—among other factors—raised questions about the potential end of U.S. exceptionalism, though we remain cautious against drawing premature conclusions.
- Credit spreads tightened to multi-decade lows, reflecting either investor confidence or complacency. Interest rates remained range-bound despite volatility, and the structural shift to higher neutral rates appears to have already occurred in recent years.
Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA – Institutional Portfolio Manager
Guests:
Crista Caughlin, CFA – Portfolio Manager
Steven Visscher, CFA – Portfolio Manager
This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.
Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.
Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.
Follow us on social:
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/
Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/
