In this jam-packed episode of Propenomix, we navigate the collision of global macroeconomics and the gritty reality of the UK property market. From the "bull in a china shop" impact of Trumponomics on UK SMEs to the legislative earthquake of the Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill, we strip away the headlines to reveal what the data actually says.
We deep-dive into the "death of leasehold" and the radical 50% threshold for commonhold conversion, dissect the government's £39bn social housing pledge, and analyze why London's Build-to-Rent sector is facing a construction "cardiac arrest." Plus, we explore why "capital allocators" see yields differently than the rest of us.
In This Episode:
🌍 The Macro View: Trumponomics & Trade Wars
How UK firms are reacting to US tariff threats and the rise of the "Anti-Coercion Instrument."
Why 21% of UK SMEs now rate US tariffs as their #1 economic concern.
📈 The Market Data: Listings, Lags & Regional Winners
Chris Watkin's Stats: A 10-year record for reductions and the return of the "listings glut."
Zoopla Index: Why the North West is surging (+3.5%) while London stalls, and the "discipline" dominating Southern sellers.
Scotland's Warning: Evidence of landlord consolidation and the 8% LBTT sting.
⚖️ Legislative Deep Dive: The Commonhold Revolution
The "Feudal" End: The ban on new leasehold flats and the £30k fines enforcing it.
The 50% Threshold: How a simple majority could drag an entire block into commonhold (and what happens to the dissenters).
Ground Rent Caps: The £250 cap, the 40-year sunset clause, and the abolition of forfeiture.
🏗️ Sector Spotlight: Social Housing, Co-Living & BTR
Social Housing: The truth about the £39bn fund and the "free money" 0.1% loans for providers.
The S106 Emergency: Why the "clearing service" is really a distressed asset register.
Co-Living Goes Mainstream: Why Earls Court is betting big on co-living and the shift to on-site affordable housing.
Build-to-Rent Reality Check: The "delivery lag"—why completions are up 13% but starts have collapsed by 80% in London.
🧠 The Propenomix Philosophy
Yields vs. Growth: Understanding the mindset difference between "BRR hustlers" and institutional "capital allocators."
Key Quotes:
"The 'London Premium' has become a 'London Penalty.' Construction costs in the capital are eye-watering, and investors are voting with their wallets."
"The government is trying to make commonhold robust... but the reliance on members voting for budgets fills me with dread."
Links:
Adam's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/
Daily PropenomAIx Newsletter: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/7392088970785878016/
Propenomix YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence
Weekly Sunday Supplement Newsletter: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/
