Description

Six weeks out from the elections, we lay out our first Senate forecasts and review the week's biggest poll drops.

In this episode, we cover:

• Who wins the Senate six weeks out? Mark makes his calls in Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, Iowa, and New Hampshire.
• Is Michigan slipping away from Mike Rogers? NYT/Siena has Abdul El-Sayed up 49% to 44%, and Suffolk has El-Sayed +7 points, his biggest lead since Labor Day. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race to Lean D, while Cook still rates it a toss-up. We break down rising gas and diesel prices, Trump's approval drag, and whether Dana Nessel's endorsement signals Democrats are finally uniting behind El-Sayed.
• How can two good pollsters be 13 points apart in Iowa? We analyze registered vs. likely voter samples and why a split-ticket could happen.
• Is there any chance for Ken Paxton in Texas? Talarico comes in leading all new polls in Texas again this week. We compare both to our own Overton Insights Texas poll and look at the NYT/Siena New Hampshire poll. We also ask whether quiet Republican voters could shrink the blue wave.
• Could Nithya Raman win LA by double digits? A new poll shows Raman ahead of Mayor Karen Bass, and she now leads on Kalshi 57% to 42%. Mark predicts a double-digit point win, with a potential Spencer Pratt endorsement of Bass.

SHOW NOTES:

00:00 - Coming up: NYT/Siena drops in Michigan, Maine, and New Hampshire

00:45 - We predict these key senate races

04:32 - Michigan polls this week

06:51 - Gas, diesel, and the Trump problem

09:58 - Is the Democratic coalition finally uniting behind El-Sayed?

11:37 - Susan Collins leads in NYT/Siena poll of Maine

14:23 - Iowa's 13-point polling gap: Marist vs. Emerson

17:01 - More Texas polls show Talarico ahead

21:20 - New Hampshire still looks competitive

23:55 - Are quiet Republicans hiding in the polls?

25:01 - LA mayor: Nithya Raman surges past Karen Bass

26:45 - Would Spencer Pratt really endorse Karen Bass?

POLLS & LINKS:

📊 NYT/Siena Michigan Senate poll (9/15–9/22), El-Sayed 49, Rogers 44: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/michigan-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html

📊 Suffolk Michigan Senate poll (9/16–9/20), El-Sayed 47, Rogers 40: https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2026/9_22_2026_michigan_statewide_tables.pdf?la=en&hash=3846F455203B08DE085D08400622793E4DB74FB2

📊 Emerson Michigan Senate poll, El-Sayed +3:
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-el-sayed-and-rogers-locked-in-close-election/

📊 Washington Post Michigan Senate poll, El-Sayed +3:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/08fa9b5e-43ac-456c-a706-4c33ec6506dc.pdf

📊 InsiderAdvantage Michigan Senate poll, El-Sayed +2:

https://insideradvantage.com/mi-top-line-tabs/

🎙 Nate Silver on gas and diesel prices: https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2102491410029019311

📊 NYT/Siena Maine poll: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/maine-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html

📊 Marist Iowa poll: https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2102249505387151488

📊 Emerson Iowa poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-poll-hinson-leads-turek/

📊 NPR/Marist Texas poll: https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Marist-Poll_TX-NOS-and-Tables_202609221131.pdf

📊 Emerson Texas poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-talarico-and-paxton-in-dead-heat-abbott-maintains-edge/

📊 Overton Insights Texas poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/

📊 NYT/Siena New Hampshire poll,: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/new-hampshire-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html

📊 Los Angeles mayoral runoff poll: https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/2102736228298674447

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

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