Description

What an upset in the Florida Democratic Senate Primary! Plus, our take on Median Strategies "social experiment" and how it hurts the credibility of legitimate pollsters.

In this episode, we cover:

• How did a $16 million establishment favorite lose to a candidate with under $1 million? – We break down Angie Nixon's grassroots upset over Alex Vindman in the Florida Senate primary, why Mark thinks Democrats' habit of nominating "boring but well-funded" candidates keeps failing, and what Nixon's win means for Ashley Moody and Republicans' hold on the seat.
• The internet is not real life, (as we expected) Florida governor edition – Byron Donalds won with 48% of the vote, and James Fishback's enthusiastic online following translated to a distant third-place finish behind Jay Collins.
• A pollster admitted it made up numbers, and it got worse from there – The Public Sentiment Institute (TPSI) had Fishback within striking distance while every legitimate poll had him near 10%. We discuss their memo explaining they moved Jay Collins voters to Fishback, the "social experiment" claims from Median Strategies, and what G. Elliott Morris and AAPOR are doing about it.

SHOW NOTES:
00:00 - Coming up: a shocking Senate upset and a fake poll
00:22 - Angie Nixon takes down a $16 million favorite
02:25 - Was this a Mamdani-style campaign? Not quite
04:00 - The governor's race goes exactly as polling predicted
04:21 - Byron Donalds wins by 22, Fishback finishes a distant third
06:37 - David Jolly vs. Angie Nixon: two very different Democratic bets
09:06 - Electability and the late-decider question
10:14 - The Fishback polling problem, TPSI
13:10 - The memo that made it worse: "we changed the votes"
15:40 - Median Strategies and the "social experiment" scam
17:30 - Why internal candidate polls need more scrutiny
21:04 - How to spot a credible poll when you're scrolling X

POLLS & LINKS:
📊 Echelon Insights (weekly platform usage, 27% X): https://echeloninsights.com/insights/august-2026-verified-voter-omnibus
🎙 G. Elliott Morris on excluding TPSI from aggregation: https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/2090406757818359935
🎙 AAPOR statement on fabricated data: https://aapor.org/announcements/aapor-responds-to-fabricated-polling-data/

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

Follow us on X and Facebook - @OvertonInsights
Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com