Description

Could the midterms make or break potential 2028 presidential aspirations for these candidates? We analyze how Jon Ossoff, Josh Shapiro, AOC, Spencer Pratt, Brian Kemp, and Ron DeSantis might fare in 2028 depending on how key midterm races play out. We also make the case for not having a blue wave on election night, with less than two weeks left and Senate control still in play.

In this episode, we cover:

• Is Jon Ossoff the Democrats' best-positioned 2028 contender? - Ossoff leads Mike Collins in every recent Georgia Senate poll. His margin is what will matter at the end of this campaign as a single-digit win over Collins is far less appealing. A Keisha Lance Bottoms loss to Rick Jackson could also impact the image of his political prowess.
• Did AOC make a risky bet on Abdul El-Sayed? - AOC has tied her image to El-Sayed's Michigan Senate race against Mike Rogers. Mark explains why a loss would feed the argument from moderates within the party that the far left can't win general elections.
• Should anyone take Spencer Pratt seriously in 2028? - After his LA mayoral run, Mark ranks Pratt high on the list for the Republican nomination and warns Democrats not to repeat their mistake of underestimating Trump as a political outsider.
• What if there's no blue wave? - Mark puts his prediction of the final generic ballot near D+6 or D+7, notes Republicans hold about a 35% chance in the Senate betting markets, and explains how a two to three point polling error in Maine, Texas and Iowa could keep the Senate red.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 - Coming up on today's episode...

00:42 - Is Ossoff the Democrats' best 2028 bet?

02:09 - Can Shapiro maintain his margins in Pennsylvania?

04:07 - AOC's big bet on El-Sayed

11:35 - Is Spencer Pratt a real 2028 contender?

14:11 - Brian Kemp's prospects with a moderate Republican image

16:55 - DeSantis has a strong resume, but can he recover from 2024?

18:43 - What if there's no blue wave?

20:41 - Can Republicans still hold the Senate?

22:39 - Maine, Texas and Iowa inside the margin of error

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

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