The Overton Insights team is joined by Florida Politics reporter AG Gancarski to discuss the midterms in Florida and new national polling trends. Both Mark and AG expect Republicans to hold Florida this November, but they split on the margins.
In this episode, we cover:
CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Coming up on today's episode...
04:31 - Did skipping debates cost Byron Donalds?
07:10 - Why James Fishback is staying on the sidelines
10:42 - Donalds' polling lead and Jolly's money problem
13:55 - Florida Senate Race: Ashley Moody vs. Angie Nixon
20:13 - Is Florida a red state or a purple one?
24:41 - Gallup's D+11 and the blue wave debate
29:41 - Can Republicans separate from Trump?
31:24 - Florida predictions: governor and Senate
33:01 - Florida's sleeper race for CFO
POLLS & LINKS:
📊 Mason-Dixon Florida poll: https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/28724874/fl1026results.pdf
📊 YouGov Florida poll: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_fl_20260921_lv.pdf
📊 Gallup Q3 party identification: https://news.gallup.com/poll/654560/quarterly-party-affiliation.aspx
The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll.
This episode features special guest AG Gancarski, who has covered statewide elections for Florida Politics since 2014. His work has also appeared in the Washington Post, New York Post, Washington Times, and National Review.
The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.
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