Good morning! Today is Thursday, April 30th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Ted Galen Carpenter argues Beijing is quietly turning the Iran war to its advantage, with Chinese ships defying the U.S. blockade of Hormuz and reports suggesting direct military aid to Tehran that could mirror NATO's role in Ukraine. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told the House Armed Services Committee the Iran campaign is "an astounding military success," even as the Pentagon disclosed a $25 billion price tag and protesters confronted him over the Minab school bombing. Javier Milei dances in Tel Aviv while his approval craters at home, as a resurgent Cryptogate scandal and a war-driven fuel shock expose the chainsaw-waving populist's growing hypocrisy. and now for the details. We begin this morning with a question being asked in foreign policy circles about whether China is quietly turning the war with Iran to its own strategic advantage. Writing for The American Conservative, Ted Galen Carpenter argues that Beijing has spent three decades exploiting American policy blunders in the Muslim world, and the Trump administration's confrontation with Tehran may prove the most consequential opening yet. Carpenter notes that Chinese cargo ships continue to traverse the Strait of Hormuz despite the U.S. naval blockade, reportedly with quiet authorization from Tehran in exchange for modest fees—a de facto undermining of Washington's pressure campaign. Beijing has also pressed its ally Pakistan to take a leading mediation role, positioning itself as a global voice for restraint while America's image abroad deteriorates. Carpenter cites reports compiled by British MP Tom Tugendhat suggesting that China has supplied Iran with satellite imagery, components, and intelligence used to attack infrastructure, shipping, and U.S. targets in Gulf countries. If those reports prove accurate, Carpenter writes, Beijing's posture would begin to resemble NATO's role in Ukraine—and Washington's latest military crusade would grow far more perilous than it already is. Staying with the war, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth appeared before the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday and called the campaign against Iran "an astounding military success." Harrison Berger reports that Hegseth clashed with California Democrat Ro Khanna over the conflict's mounting price tag. Pressed by Khanna, Hegseth countered, "What would you pay to ensure Iran doesn't get a nuclear bomb?" The Pentagon's acting comptroller, Jules Hurst, testifying alongside the Secretary, offered the first official estimate: roughly $25 billion spent so far, mostly on ammunition. Outside the hearing, protesters confronted Hegseth on Capitol Hill, with demonstrators heard pressing him about the Minab school bombing, which killed more than 160 schoolchildren in Iran at the start of the war. That war's economic effects continue to ripple outward. In a separate dispatch, Harrison Berger reports that the ceasefire has now entered its 22nd day, but shipping data tracked by the trade intelligence platform Kpler shows no improvement in flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has set the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade as its condition for reopening the strait. President Trump met Tuesday with oil executives at the White House—joined by Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner—to discuss the possibility of a prolonged closure. Brent crude rose to $117 a barrel Wednesday morning, and AAA reported the national average price of gasoline at $4.23. On Truth Social, the president wrote that Iran "can't get their act together" and "better get smart soon." He also took aim at German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who said earlier this week that the U.S. is being "humiliated" by Iranian leaders. The fuel shock is being felt well beyond America's borders. From Buenos Aires, Joseph Addington reports that Argentine President Javier Milei is in serious political trouble. Milei traveled to Tel Aviv last week, where he received the Presidential Medal of Honor and joined an Independence Day song-and-dance number, declaring his total support for the U.S. and Israeli campaign against Iran. At home, however, his approval ratings have collapsed from the mid-40s to 37 percent, with his net approval falling from minus two to minus 24 over the past year. Argentine monthly inflation, which had bottomed out at 1.5 percent last May, climbed to 3.4 percent last month, driven in significant part by the fuel shock from the war Milei is championing abroad. Compounding his troubles, Addington details the resurgent "Cryptogate" scandal. Prosecutors who subpoenaed the phone of middleman Mauricio Novelli uncovered draft contracts promising cryptocurrency executives private meetings with the president and even regulatory carveouts in exchange for millions of dollars. Cube Exchange has confirmed Milei signed a preliminary agreement promising
