Good morning! Today is Tuesday, June 2nd 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Iran suspends ceasefire talks with Washington over Israeli strikes in Gaza and Lebanon, as oil surges past $97 and Tehran weighs closing the Strait of Hormuz. Andrew Day warns the Iran and Ukraine wars are dangerously intertwined, with Moscow helping Tehran target U.S. assets while American interceptor stockpiles run dry. Russian elites now openly wonder whether Trump will run the same negotiate-then-strike playbook on them that he ran on Iran, dimming hopes for any deal. and now for the details. We begin in the Middle East, where the Iran War ceasefire entered its fifty-fifth day on Monday with diplomacy stalling. Iran has halted indirect ceasefire talks with the United States, citing continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Gaza. Iran's Tasnim News Agency, quoting unnamed officials, said there will be no dialogue until Israel halts its military operations in Gaza and Lebanon and fully withdraws from occupied Lebanese territory. Tehran also signaled it is weighing a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the opening of additional fronts, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi reaffirmed Tehran's position that the ceasefire applies on all fronts — meaning, in his words, a violation on one front is a violation everywhere. President Trump, in a Truth Social post early Monday, said Iran "really wants to make a deal" and urged Americans to "sit back and relax." Over the weekend, U.S. Central Command struck radar and drone command sites along the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iran downing a U.S. MQ-1 drone. Iran's IRGC says it retaliated by striking an American base in Kuwait with ballistic missiles. As Harrison Berger reports for The American Conservative, Israel is meanwhile expanding its campaign in Lebanon, with Prime Minister Netanyahu ordering fresh airstrikes on Beirut. Lebanon's Health Ministry now puts the civilian death toll since March 2nd at 3,433. The economic shock is already visible: Brent crude surged above $97 a barrel Monday morning, and AAA reports the national average price of gas at $4.32. The fallout from that stalled diplomacy reaches well beyond the Persian Gulf. In a deeper analysis for The American Conservative, Andrew Day argues that the Iran War and the Ukraine War have become dangerously intertwined, and that the longer the first drags on, the more perilous the second becomes. As Day reports, Russia, a strategic partner of Tehran, appears to have helped Iran target U.S. assets in the Middle East with notable precision — payback, in Moscow's view, for American support of Ukraine. Rosemary Kelanic of Defense Priorities had warned TAC back in February that Russia would likely aid Iran precisely to create leverage over Washington's Ukraine policy. Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute now sees the same dynamic emboldening the Kremlin to threaten escalation in Ukraine. Day notes a second connection: the United States has rapidly burned through its stock of air-defense interceptors protecting assets and partners from Iranian attacks, leaving little to spare for Kiev, where President Zelensky says supplies are running out. And there is a diplomatic cost. Day reports that Russian officials and analysts, including Fyodor Lukyanov, now openly question whether Trump might run the same playbook on them that he ran on Iran — negotiate, then strike. Lukyanov told TAC the chance of a negotiated solution has decreased. Day closes with a sobering question: with American attention and armaments stretched thin, might Beijing see a fleeting opening on Taiwan? Not World War III, he writes, but no longer hyperbole to worry about it. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.
