Good morning! Today is Friday, May 1st 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. First-quarter GDP rebounded to 2 percent, but the Iran War keeps Brent crude above $110 and gas at a four-year high. Iran retains most of its missile arsenal while America has burned through critical interceptor stockpiles, shifting the leverage at the negotiating table. Trump pulls Casey Means's surgeon general nomination and reportedly weighs backing Argentina's Falklands claim as payback against Starmer. and now for the details. We begin this morning with the economy. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that U.S. GDP grew at a 2 percent annualized rate in the first quarter of 2026, a sharp rebound from last quarter's anemic 0.5 percent, though falling just shy of the 2.2 percent that economists had predicted. As Joseph Addington reports for The American Conservative, the outlook for the rest of the year is clouded by the Iran War. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off a significant portion of global oil supply, with Brent crude holding at $111 a barrel Thursday and the average price of a gallon of gas climbing to $4.30—the highest American drivers have seen since 2022. That war, now in its 23rd day of ceasefire, dominates the rest of this morning's brief. Harrison Berger reports that the Pentagon's comptroller, Jay Hurst, told members of the House Armed Services Committee Wednesday that the total cost of the conflict so far is $25 billion, the bulk of it munitions. Democratic Congressman Jason Crow of Colorado told CNN that figure "is a low ball number," suggesting the true cost is "probably two or three times that." Axios reports that President Trump will receive a briefing on new military options, with Central Command chief Brad Cooper presenting plans that range from a wave of strikes on Iranian infrastructure to seizing parts of the Strait of Hormuz to reopen shipping. Trump told Axios he considers the naval blockade "more effective than the bombing" but has not ruled out escalation. Iran, for its part, says it will not resume direct talks until the blockade is lifted. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, marking Iran's National Persian Gulf Day, said Tehran will treat its nuclear and missile programs as national assets and envisioned a future "without the United States" in the region. Oil prices briefly hit their highest levels since the war began, with Brent crude touching $126 Thursday morning before settling below $120. The deeper question—who actually holds the leverage at the negotiating table—is taken up by Ted Snider in a careful analysis for TAC. While President Trump has declared the U.S. "completely decimated" Iran, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has called the Iranian military "combat-ineffective for years to come," Snider points to internal U.S. intelligence assessments showing that Iran retains at least 60 percent of its missile launchers, nearly half of its ballistic missiles, and 40 percent of its attack drones. Even Hegseth now concedes that Iran is "digging out" struck missiles and launchers. Snider cites a Center for Strategic and International Studies report finding that during 39 days of fighting, the U.S. military expended between 45 and 60 percent of its Patriot interceptors, 50 to 80 percent of its THAAD interceptors, at least 30 percent of its Tomahawk cruise missiles, and potentially its entire inventory of Precision Strike Missiles. Jennifer Kavanagh, a military analyst at Defense Priorities, told TAC the figures should be taken with caution, but they reflect that the United States "has burned through a lot of its munitions stockpile." The real concern, she said, is "future crises and the U.S. ability to respond in case there are threats that—unlike Iran—really do affect U.S. interests." The Pentagon has already transferred missiles and interceptors from Europe and Asia to the Middle East, weakening America's posture against China. Iranian negotiators believe Trump pushed for the ceasefire because the U.S. failed to achieve its battlefield goals—and Snider concludes that Washington may yet find its coercive diplomacy no more effective than its military campaign. The war is also straining America's oldest alliance. Jude Russo writes that President Trump, displeased with Prime Minister Keir Starmer for failing to join the Iran War with sufficient enthusiasm, has reportedly entertained a Pentagon proposal to back Argentine claims to the Falkland Islands. Russo argues that British indignation about "the special relationship" misreads two centuries of history. The Roosevelt and Truman administrations, he writes, were overtly anti-imperial; the Bretton Woods settlement ousted the pound from reserve-currency status and abolished Imperial Preference, hastening the collapse of the British Empire. American power, Russo contends, has always been competitive with British power, and the sentimental attachment matters far more to the weaker partner than the s
