Good morning! Today is Saturday, May 16th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Jude Russo argues Trump's Beijing visit lays bare a decade of strategic drift, with a sub-300-ship Navy, an Iran war cannibalizing Asian assets, and Xi dictating terms on Taiwan with little pushback. Ted Snider unpacks four revelations from Putin's Victory Day press conference, including a possible opening for European dialogue, Gerhard Schroeder named as preferred negotiator, and Macron identified as the leader who urged the 2022 Kiev troop pullback. Treasury yields hit their highest levels since before the 2008 crisis as CPI climbs to 3.8 percent, leaving Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to navigate balance sheet runoff alongside rate cuts. and now for the details. Our lead this morning is President Trump's visit to Beijing, and the strategic picture it reveals about the state of American power. Writing for The American Conservative, Jude Russo argues that the trip underscores just how little progress Washington has made on the China challenge that defined Trump's original political rise a decade ago. The theory, as articulated by Elbridge Colby in the 2018 National Defense Strategy, was straightforward: bolster Indo-Pacific partnerships, deemphasize the Middle East, undertake a serious naval buildup—particularly with littoral combat vessels—and decouple industrially from China. The target year for being ready to deter a move on Taiwan was 2027. As Russo lays out, the scorecard is grim. The Navy today sits at under 300 ships, essentially where it was in 2016. A frigate program awarded to Fincantieri in 2020 bogged down in Pentagon bloat. Retrenchment from the Middle East has stalled—U.S. forces pulled out of Syria and Iraq, only to be tied down in a costly war with Iran that has cannibalized assets from Asia. Carrier groups and missile systems originally posted in South Korea have been redomiciled to the Persian Gulf, and stockpiles of munitions have been burned through at extraordinary rates. Industrial decoupling has shown some progress—the trade deficit with China dropped sharply in 2025—but rare earth minerals and their derivatives remain stubbornly tied to Chinese supply chains, which forced the recent trade-war "truce." Russo notes that the administration appears to have tacitly acknowledged the failure, reorienting the new National Security and National Defense Strategies toward the Western Hemisphere. In Beijing, Xi Jinping declared what would and would not happen with Taiwan without serious pushback from the president. Russo's bottom line: China is very serious, and the United States is not. The question now, he writes, is whether American leaders can manage a controlled landing—or whether we are headed for a crash. Turning to the war in Ukraine—Ted Snider reports on four notable revelations from Vladimir Putin's press conference following Russia's Victory Day parade. The headline-grabber was Putin's line that "the matter is coming to an end." But Snider, drawing on Russia scholars Nicolai Petro, Geoffrey Roberts, and Richard Sakwa, argues the phrase may not refer to the war itself but to the framework of Western support for Ukraine—and possibly to growing European interest in opening dialogue with Moscow. Belgium's Bart de Wever, Finland's Alexander Stubb, and officials in Italy and Austria have all signaled openness to talks. Second, Putin named former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder as his preferred negotiating partner. Third, Putin for the first time publicly named French President Emmanuel Macron as the Western leader who, in spring 2022, asked him to withdraw troops from Kiev to facilitate the Istanbul negotiations—negotiations that then collapsed. Putin claims to have a recording of that call. And fourth, on Iran: Putin disclosed that the United States, Iran, and Israel had all agreed to transfer Iran's highly enriched uranium to Russian territory, before Washington hardened its position and insisted the material come to the United States. According to Putin, that shift caused Iran to walk back the deal entirely. That account dovetails with our next story. Harrison Berger reports it is now day 38 of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire. In a Fox News interview, President Trump said retrieving Iran's enriched uranium is necessary mainly "from a public relations standpoint." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran doubts American seriousness about a negotiated settlement, and confirmed that nuclear questions have been postponed to later stages of talks. Iran's stated conditions remain unchanged: an end to hostilities, the lifting of sanctions, Iranian management of the Strait of Hormuz, an end to the U.S. naval blockade, and a cessation of fighting in Lebanon, where the Health Ministry reports nearly three thousand Lebanese killed since early March. Brent crude sits at $108 a barrel. AAA puts the national average for gasoline at $4.53. On the domestic economy, David Brady reports that U.S.
