Good morning! Today is Tuesday, May 19th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. On day forty-one of a fragile Iran ceasefire, Tehran unveils a new Strait of Hormuz authority as Trump warns "the clock is ticking" and a New York Times/Siena poll finds sixty-four percent of Americans believe going to war was the wrong call. W. James Antle III argues Trump wants a face-saving exit from Iran, but the hawks and late-converts to MAGA who cheered him in—chief among them Lindsey Graham—will turn on him the moment he tries to leave. Adam Gallagher finds a silver lining in the war's wreckage: Gulf allies blindsided by Washington are accelerating their pivot toward regional balancing, opening the door to the American retrenchment from the Middle East that should have come long ago. and now for the details. We begin with the Iran War, now in the forty-first day of its fragile ceasefire. Iran officially unveiled the Persian Gulf Strait Authority on Monday, a new body to regulate access and collect transit fees from vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday about the possibility of renewing the war, and posted on Truth Social that, quote, "For Iran, the clock is ticking." Middle East officials cited by the New York Times say Washington and Jerusalem are preparing for a possible resumption of attacks this week. On the diplomatic track, Iran's Tasnim News Agency reports the United States has accepted a temporary waiver of oil sanctions in its latest negotiating text, and Tehran has submitted another fourteen-point peace proposal through Pakistani mediators. Iran's stated conditions include an immediate end to hostilities, non-aggression guarantees, the lifting of sanctions, Iranian management of the Strait, and an end to the U.S. naval blockade. As Harrison Berger reports for TAC, the economic toll continues to mount. The Financial Times says mortgage rates are climbing across North America and Europe as lenders price in expected rate hikes. Brown University's Costs of War project estimates American consumers have already paid more than forty billion dollars in extra fuel costs since the war began. Brent Crude sat at one hundred eight dollars Monday morning, and AAA put the national average price of gasoline at four dollars and fifty-two cents. A New York Times/Siena poll finds sixty-four percent of Americans believe Trump made the wrong decision to go to war with Iran, including seventy-three percent of independents. Staying with Iran, TAC editor W. James Antle the Third argues that President Trump wants this war to end, if Tehran will give him a face-saving exit. But Antle warns that the very people who cheered Trump into the conflict will turn on him the moment he tries to leave it. Their goals, he writes, are maximalist: regime change, or as close to it as possible. Trump, by contrast, appears to want something closer to the Venezuela model, decapitating the regime while doing business with what remains. Antle points to Senator Lindsey Graham, who in one breath calls the Republican Party the party of Donald Trump, and in the next insists nothing short of toppling the Iranian government will do. Graham told reporters it would be worth losing his Senate seat over Iran. Exiled former crown prince Reza Pahlavi, meanwhile, told Politico that Trump is sending confusing mixed signals, urging Iranians to rise while simultaneously negotiating with their rulers. Antle notes the irony that many urging Trump deeper into war are late converts to MAGA, or former Never Trumpers, whose ambitions could cost Republicans their congressional majorities. The last attempt at remaking the Middle East, he reminds readers, left Iran a bigger regional power and produced ISIS, followed by two decades in Afghanistan that ended with the Taliban's return. The party of Donald Trump exists, Antle concludes, because more than twenty years ago George W. Bush listened to too many people like Lindsey Graham. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.
