Good morning! Today is Wednesday, May 27th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. On day 49 of the Iran War ceasefire, Secretary Rubio says talks will continue despite overnight U.S. strikes, as a possible memorandum of understanding would lift the Hormuz blockade and end the war on all fronts—even as Israel escalates in Lebanon. Andrew Day argues that neither a grand bargain nor a bigger war is likely with Iran, and urges Trump to pursue a small, achievable deal—or simply end the war and bring American forces home. Ivan Eland warns that adversaries from Vietnam to Tehran have learned to outlast American patience through asymmetric warfare, and cautions that depleted U.S. munitions and fresh threats against Cuba reveal a foreign policy elite incapable of restraint. and now for the details. We begin with the latest from the Iran War ceasefire, now in its 49th day. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking from India on Tuesday, said indirect negotiations would continue despite overnight U.S. military strikes against Iranian targets. Rubio said there is, quote, "a lot of talking back and forth going on about specific language in the initial document," and that a deal will take a few more days. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed it had downed a U.S. MQ-9 drone and fired at an F-35 fighter jet in response to what U.S. Central Command described as self-defense strikes. As Harrison Berger reports for The American Conservative, President Trump signaled new flexibility on Monday over Iran's right to enrich uranium, posting on Truth Social that his preference is for the uranium to be, quote, "destroyed in place" inside Iran, witnessed by international inspectors. Iranian outlets report that a possible memorandum of understanding would have the U.S. lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and waive sanctions on Iranian oil during negotiations. In exchange, Iran would allow vessel traffic at pre-war levels, though Tehran insists it will retain control over the waterway. The reported deal also envisions ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon. But Israeli strikes killed nine people across southern Lebanon on Monday, and Israel's Channel 14 reports Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz are discussing a significant expansion of operations there. Brent crude sat at 97 dollars Tuesday morning, with the national average price of regular gas at 4 dollars and 49 cents per gallon. That dynamic is the subject of a companion analysis from Andrew Day at The American Conservative. Day writes that President Trump has framed the choice with Iran as either a great deal or a bigger war—but argues that, given political and military constraints, neither outcome is likely. As Day reports, the Israel lobby in Washington, led by groups like AIPAC, mobilizes against any peace agreement that appears too generous to Tehran. And Israel itself, he argues, can sabotage negotiations indirectly by escalating its campaign in Lebanon—which is exactly what's now happening as Prime Minister Netanyahu expands operations there. Day notes that Trump's latest move—demanding that Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf states sign the Abraham Accords as part of any agreement—adds new complications, because leaders in Muslim-majority nations face domestic blowback over Israel's treatment of the Palestinians. Day's recommendation: rather than chase a sweeping grand bargain, Trump should pursue a small, achievable deal that officially ends the war and stabilizes relations, leaving thornier political questions for later. And if even that proves unworkable, Day argues, antiwar voices should remind the president that he doesn't need a deal at all—he can simply end the war and bring American forces home. Stepping back from the immediate conflict, Ivan Eland writes for The American Conservative on whether the United States is even capable of restraint when it comes to foreign interventions. Eland traces a pattern stretching from Vietnam through Iraq and Afghanistan: adversaries have learned that the center of gravity in any war with America is not the battlefield but American public opinion at home. By combining conventional and irregular warfare, weaker opponents can outlast the patience of the American voter. As Eland reports, the current Iran conflict fits the pattern. Iran is using missiles, cheap drones, mines, and small boats to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, driving up global oil prices and striking at Gulf Arab oil facilities. U.S. missile inventories, he writes, are depleted and will take years to replenish. And yet, Eland notes, the Trump administration is now floating threats against Cuba as well. He warns that the proliferation of cheap drones and surveillance technology has made asymmetric warfare more formidable than ever, and that the American public—judging by early polling on the Iran intervention—appears more clear-eyed about the perils of foreign quagmires than the country's for
