Munaf Manji, Mackenzie Rivers, Dave Essler and SleepyJ talk NFL contests for week 4.
Munaf Manji (0:06 – 2:21) opened by welcoming listeners, recapping Week 3, and noting that Circa Survivor lost 3,154 entries with 13,811 remaining, each valued at $1,355. He emphasized that fading the top five most-selected teams has been profitable as they went 2-12-1 ATS at Westgate and 3-12 ATS at Circa, with one entry leading Circa Millions at 14-1. Sleepy J (5:45 – 8:53) chose the Titans +7 vs the Texans, saying “I think the Titans are slowly building. Cam Ward is looking a little bit better each and every game.” He highlighted Houston’s lowest points per game, Tank Dell’s absence, Mixon’s struggles, and a weak offensive line. He argued Tennessee is hungrier and capable of an outright win. Munaf (8:53 – 10:08) agreed, calling the Texans’ line inflated, citing receiver losses, Nick Chubb’s decline, and predicting a fairer line closer to six. Dave Essler (10:09 – 10:43) also agreed, calling +7 too many points, though doubting Tennessee’s ability to win outright. Mackenzie Rivers (10:52 – 12:06) picked Buccaneers +3.5 over the Eagles, arguing “The Eagles have underperformed all season. If you look at advanced stats, they could easily be one and two or oh and three.” He dismissed Philadelphia’s late-game magic, noted Wirfs’ return, Mayfield’s strong play, and called the line exaggerated. Dave (13:27 – 16:29) agreed on Tampa, then picked the Broncos -7.5 over the Bengals, pointing to Denver’s defense being top 10 in yards per play, number two in the red zone, and number one in TDs not allowed per game, while Cincinnati averaged only 49 rushing yards per game with Browning already turnover-prone. Munaf (16:30 – 17:12) backed this, citing Chase Brown’s meager 93 yards on 2.0 YPC and Browning’s five interceptions. Sleepy (17:14 – 19:17) hesitated on Denver due to the spread, saying “I would much rather pick a dead number game” but admitted Cincinnati’s WRs could still threaten Denver’s defense. Munaf (19:17 – 21:45) chose Steelers +2.5 vs Vikings in Dublin, pointing out Wentz faces new pressure, Pittsburgh’s defense improved with T.J. Watt, and Jalen Warren emerged as a passing-game weapon. He predicted mistakes from Wentz would cost Minnesota. Sleepy (21:59 – 23:58) liked the Steelers too, stressing the importance of the 2.5 line in a low-total game, warning Wentz has struggled under pressure and “when you get a level-headed Aaron Rodgers, you don’t get five turnovers.” Mackenzie (24:37 – 26:52) disagreed, backing Vikings, criticizing Rodgers’ rankings (31st in PFF, 22nd in QBR), pointing to Pittsburgh’s poor metrics, and saying “Favorites do well internationally.” Dave (27:07 – 27:50) sided with Mack, calling Pittsburgh’s run game the second worst in the league and Rodgers incapable of carrying them. Survivor picks followed: Dave (30:12 – 32:01) took Patriots over Panthers, dismissing Carolina’s win as turnover-driven, while Sleepy (32:06 – 35:42) also chose New England, adding, “How many chances are you going to get to really play New England? I think the chances to play them is this week.” Munaf (35:42 – 37:33) added Denver and possibly Texans as options but leaned Broncos. Mackenzie (37:34 – 38:50) favored Detroit, citing a profitable trend where underdogs who win as big dogs typically fail the next week, saying, “The Browns traveling to Detroit get smoked. And I think Carolina also is going to be a little bit overmatched in New England.” The show closed with humor, coupon codes, and Dave joking about being offered Fritos for Chase Brown, ending with optimism about continuing to deliver valuable picks
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