While the debt doomers circle, we’ll examine why no one is good at forecasting and why widely acceptable notions of cross-asset correlations are wrong. We’ll also focus on the market's strengths and discuss the incredible power of America’s dollar, wages, and efficient energy output.
Key Takeaways
[00:17] - Inflation Update + shelter’s outsized effect
[06:33] - Disinflation + the debt-doom loop
[09:40] - The power of the US: the Dollar, our wages, energy production
[13:36] - The incredible efficiency of modern oil/energy markets
[15:09] - What’s happened recently when the SP has broken a positive trend line
[16:16] - The surprising market reaction to Iran’s missile attack
Links
Bilello: The Start of a Correction (March CPI Data)
Apartment List National Rent Report (April)
Grannis: Moderate growth and disinflation still alive and well
Weniger: A massive wage arbitrage has opened between the US and its competitors
USA has switched from large importer of oil & gas to a significant exporter
Carmel: We're not in a 1970s-style oil-inflation spiral
Detrick: S&P 500 broke the trend line from late October. What’s next?
Carmel: We are objectively terrible at forecasting rates
Roche: Why savers are in hog heaven
Connect with our hosts
Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
