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Can a single conflict rewrite the rules of global power? Since the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has become the epicenter of a struggle not just for territory, but for the future of the international order. By defiantly defending its sovereignty, it challenges the very idea of spheres of influence and redraws the boundaries of security. This reset hinges on a pivotal, often paradoxical player: China. While officially calling for peace, Beijing’s economic and diplomatic support for Russia provides a critical lifeline, positioning China not as a neutral mediator, but as a decisive architect of whatever new world emerges from this war.

Dr. Alexander John Motyl is an American historian, political scientist, poet, writer, translator, and painter. He is a resident of New York City. He is professor of political science at Rutgers University in Newark, New Jersey, and a specialist on Ukraine, Russia, and the Soviet Union.