Description

Is Carlos Estévez throwing 88 mph a red flag or spring training noise? Should you buy Spencer Strider's velocity dip at pick 112? Joe Bond, AJ Applegarth, and Corey Pieper break down the biggest 2026 fantasy baseball ADP movers using live NFBC datam from injured closers crashing 40+ spots to red-hot prospects climbing the draft board.

The guys debate which fallers are worth buying (Eugenio Suárez back in Cincinnati for 40+ bombs?) and which risers are traps (Jarren Durán crushing spring but was Corey's bust pick). Plus: FanDuel betting props on Rafael Devers (30.5 HR over/under) and Spencer Strider (168.5 K over/under).

Biggest fallers:

• Carlos Estévez: 95 mph → 88 mph velocity, Matt Strom lurking (dropped 10 spots)
• Spencer Strider: Velocity at 94-95 vs peak 98, Corey takes the under on 168.5 K prop
• Hunter Greene: Elbow surgery, won't pitch until July, ADP crashed from 42 to 330
• Josh Hader: Bicep injury, Brian Abreu ready to close (dropped from 109 to 119)
• Jordan Westburg: Torn UCL, won't return until at least after April (fell to pick 329)

Biggest risers:

• Jarren Durán: 6 HR in 30 spring at-bats including bombs off Sale/Scubal (up 7-8 spots)
• Matt McLain: .607 spring avg, 2 K in 28 AB, Corey admits "I can be proven wrong" (up to 169)
• Jac Caglianone: "Could make a run at 40 home runs" - Corey (up to 182)
• Shane McClanahan: Velocity climbing, only throwing 80% effort (still 195 ADP)
• Konnor Griffin: Great talent, but are we buying the hype too much? (up to 132)

Heated debates:

• Devers 30.5 HR prop: All three take the over despite .236 avg in San Francisco
• Hunter Greene innings: Joe says 80, Corey says 40, who do you agree with?
• Sal Stewart vs Matt McLain: Who's the Reds first baseman to trust?
• Ivan Herrera utility-only: Still worth it at pick 170?

Plus: Why Corey's taking Blake Snell at pick 171 in deep leagues, AJ's Andrew Painter hype as a "generational talent," and the Kevin McGonigle Tigers breakout nobody's talking about.

Rankings and cheat sheets at fantasysixpack.net/plans (Code: F6PPODS saves 15%)

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