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Description

00:00 Intro and agenda
00:35 October 15 tax anxiety: private investments, penalties, and CPAs
01:34 Experience as a service: the new form factor
02:32 Experience-market fit: unified context across channels
03:06 The AI CPA: pulling 1099s and K-1s, estimating returns
04:31 The whole ecosystem: client, CPA, and bookkeeper agents
05:36 From "software eating the world" to "AI eating experiences"
06:34 Early glimmers: Granola, SMS-first AI, and AI advisors on Zoom
07:44 Agents that act: booking, emailing, and the agentic family office
08:16 Licensing and regulation: humans in the car, not driving
09:20 White-collar disruption in the next 6-12 months
10:25 Demand pull vs. slow diffusion
10:31 AI SDRs that know who's calling
11:00 "Tech on tech violence": Meta, GitHub, and new audio models
13:55 Startup and small business mindset in the AI era
14:46 From AI enablement to labor substitution
15:30 SaaS, insurers, and public CPA firms at risk
16:00 Markets: rates have topped, and preferreds at 7.7%
16:46 Mag 7 safe havens vs. rate-sensitive leadership
17:10 Midterm-year dynamics: 2018 and 2022
17:45 Value in semis and memory: Nvidia, TSMC, Applied Materials
18:07 Gap down, close stronger: a familiar pattern
20:13 Hot inflation prints get priced in faster
20:40 A hot economy and the Fed behind the curve
22:14 Real Vision: why 2002 and 2008 comparisons don't hold
24:10 Private credit: coupons vs. principal losses
25:24 Redemptions, refinancing, and rate resets
25:53 The commercial real estate "cheese grater"
27:01 Public markets: AmEx, Goldman, and rate-sensitive conviction
27:49 Compute demand: "any chip made will be sold"
28:37 Preview: defense tech interview
30:20 The four-year cycle and midterm seasonality
31:41 Policy uncertainty, defense stocks, and exquisite consumables

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