Introduction:
- Overview of the podcast focusing on Commerce Ventures' annual prediction season.
- Discussion on examining the outcomes of 2023 predictions and their implications for 2024.
Review of 2023 Predictions:
Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Implosion:
- BNPL usage remains high, defying expectations of implosion.
- Resilience noted despite economic challenges.
- Acknowledgment of misjudgment on BNPL providers' performance.
Consumer Balance Sheet Resilience:
- Surprising resilience in consumer balance sheets.
- Delinquencies did not rise as anticipated.
- Challenger banks found ways to adapt to challenges.
Private Equity Roll-Up of D2C Retail Darlings:
- Lack of roll-up activity observed, challenges faced by some.
- Economic factors and unexpected rate changes influenced outcomes.
Crypto's Persistence:
- Predicted crypto persistence in 2023.
- Acknowledgment of a cold year for crypto.
- Recent uptick in Bitcoin's value impacting the prediction.
Mass Merchants vs. Luxury Performance:
- Luxury sector booms, mass merchants face headwinds.
- Economic environment affects both sectors, with some deviations from expectations.
Incumbents Acquiring Venture-Backed Payments Companies:
- Successful prediction with Visa's acquisition of Pismo.
- Expectations for more acquisitions in the future.
Skyrocketing Consumer Borrowing Impact:
- Mixed outcomes with parts of the prediction playing out.
- Opportunities in credit servicing and data space observed.
Venture Funding Bottoming Out:
- Acknowledgment of being off on the timing.
- Return of scrappy founders observed in the market.
Venture Funding Continues to Fall:
- Scrappy founder mentality due to funding challenges.
- Adaptation to scarcity of venture dollars.
Retailers Invest in Automation:
- Confirmation of retailers investing in automation.
- Emphasis on AI's role in shaping the future of retail.
Outlook for 2024 Predictions:
AI Impact on Retail P&L:
- Prediction of AI-driven OpEx reductions at major retailers.
- Anticipation of actual impact on P&L.
Consumer Adoption of AI:
- Optimistic prediction of a significant number of Americans using AI daily or weekly.
- Examples from platforms like TikTok influencing AI adoption.
M&A Surge in 2024:
- Anticipation of increased M&A activity in the first half of the year.
- Factors include scale, revenue generation, and potential market closures before elections.
Crypto Market Resurgence:
- Prediction of a crypto market run-up in 2024.
- Factors include legal actions, regulatory clarity, and market sentiment.
Bank Industry Dynamics:
- Expectation of a bank collapse or acquisition due to challenges in commercial real estate.
- Potential impacts on the broader financial services landscape.
Chime IPO and Retail Market Response:
- Prediction of Chime's IPO and subsequent market reactions.
- Expectation of retail market emulation of successful models like SheIn.
Challenger Banks IPO Filings:
- Anticipation of IPO filings by large challenger banks.
- Questions about business model viability and profitability.
Interest Rate Changes:
- Expected sequence of events leading to interest rate reduction.
- Impact on lending and capital requirements for banks.
