Every month, Mark Penn, Harris Poll Chairman and Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill review the findings of the latest Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll. This month's poll was released together with The Hill this week. The October poll was conducted from October 12-13, 2022, among 2,010 registered voters. (Link to the full poll here).
Republicans are inching closer towards a wave election as they connect with voters on their key issues of inflation, crime, and immigration. The GOP is now winning the generic Congressional ballot 53-47 among likely voters.
Biden continues to struggle, especially on the economy: 84% of Americans think the US is in a recession now or will be by next year, and 55% blame Biden for inflation – including 42% of Democrats. The president’s recent policies on student debt relief and marijuana pardons are popular but don’t move the needle electorally for the Democrats.
Other key findings include:
VOTERS THINK REPUBLICANS ARE ADDRESSING THEIR TOP ISSUES MORE THAN DEMOCRATS
- Inflation, crime, and immigration are the most important issues voters picked heading into the midterms – and based on each, voters say they are over 10 points more likely to vote Republican than Democratic.
- Americans think Republican leaders are most concerned with immigration, inflation, and the economy – while Democratic leaders are most concerned with January 6, women’s rights, and the environment.
AMERICANS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT A RECESSION
- 84% of voters think the US is in a recession now or will be in one by next year.
- 58% are not confident in the Biden administration’s ability to keep inflation at bay.
- Americans are worried about the Fed: 74% think the Fed will cause a recession.
BIDEN’S DEBT RELIEF AND MARIJUANA PARDON POLICIES ARE POPULAR BUT DON’T MOVE THE NEEDLE ELECTORALLY
- 67% approve of Biden’s marijuana pardon, but it has no net effect on the electorate: 36% of voters say it makes them more likely to vote Republican, and 35% say more likely to vote Democratic.
- It’s a similar story for Biden’s student debt relief: 58% support his act – but 41% say it has made them more likely to vote Republican, compared to 35% Democratic.
AMERICANS LEAN TOWARDS HAWKISH FOREIGN POLICY ON OIL AND RUSSIA
- 65% oppose easing sanctions on countries like Iran and Venezuela as a way to lower gas and oil prices; instead, they want greater output of American oil and gas.
- 54% think the US should cut military sales and technical aid to the Saudi Arabian government in response to their oil production cut.
- Voters are split on whether or not Biden’s policies on Ukraine are pushing us towards nuclear war, and a majority remain supportive of providing aid to Ukraine.
- If Russia uses a nuclear weapon on Ukraine, 59% of Americans are willing to send in NATO.
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