To frame our conversation, we use one of Drew’s papers to discuss this issue. This paper, Forecasts or Fortune-Telling,was borne out of deep frustration.
Tune in to hear our discussion about when or if it is appropriate to listen to experts.
Topics:
Quotes:
“Is it best to grab ten oncologists and take the average of their opinions?”
“But there is this possibility that there are some people who are better at managing their own cognitive biases than others. And it’s not to do with domain expertise, it’s to do with a particular set of skills that they call ‘super-forecasting’.”
“As far as I understand it, most organizations do not use complicated ways of combining expert opinions.”
Resources:
