Finance professor Spencer Barnes explains research showing postseason officiating systematically favors the Mahomes-era Chiefs—consistent with subconscious, financially driven “regulatory capture,” not explicit rigging.
Guest bio: Dr. Spencer Barnes is a finance professor at UTEP. He co-authored “Under Financial Pressure” with Brandon Mendez (South Carolina) and Ted Dischman, using sports as a transparent lab to study regulatory capture.
Topics discussed (in order):
- Why the NFL is a clean testbed for regulatory capture
- Data/methods: 13,136 defensive penalties (2015–2023), panel dataset, fixed-effects
- Postseason favoritism toward Mahomes-era Chiefs
- Magnitude and game impact (first downs, yards, FG-margin games)
- Subjective vs objective penalties (RTP, DPI vs offsides/false start)
- Regular season vs postseason differences
- Dynasty checks (Patriots/Brady; Eagles/Rams/49ers)
- Rigging vs subconscious bias
- Ratings, revenue (~$23B in 2024), media incentives
- Gambling’s rise post-2018 and bettor implications
- Taylor Swift factor (not tested due to data window)
- Ref assignment opacity; repeat-crew effects
- Tech/replay reform ideas
- Broader finance lesson on incentives and regulation
Main points & takeaways:
- Core postseason result: Chiefs ~20 percentage points more likely than peers to gain a first down from a defensive penalty.
- Subjective flags: ~30% more likely for KC in playoffs (RTP, DPI).
- Size: ~4 extra yards per defensive penalty in playoffs—small per play, decisive at FG margins.
- Regular season: No favorable treatment; slight tilt the other way.
- Ref carryover: Crews with a prior KC postseason official show more KC-favorable outcomes the next year.
- Not universal to dynasties: Patriots/Brady and other near-dynasties don’t show the same postseason effect.
- Mechanism: No claim of rigging; consistent with implicit bias under financial incentives.
- Policy: Use tech (skycam, auto-checks for false start/offsides), limited challenges for subjective calls, transparent ref advancement.
- General lesson: When regulators depend financially on outcomes, redesign incentives to reduce capture and protect fairness.
Top 3 quotes:
- “We make no claim the NFL is rigging anything. What we see looks like implicit bias shaped by financial incentives.” — Spencer Barnes
- “It only takes one call to swing a postseason game decided by a field goal.” — Spencer Barnes
- “If there’s money on the line, you must design the regulators’ environment so incentives don’t quietly bend enforcement.” — Spencer Barnes
Links/where to find the work: Spencer Barnes on LinkedIn (search: “Spencer Barnes UTEP”); paper Under Financial Pressure in the Financial Review (paywall) and as a free working paper on SSRN (search the title).
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