Global conflict is colliding with farm economics in this episode of Wheat’s on Your Mind. Host Aaron Harries is joined by Mike O’Dea, risk management consultant at StoneX, and Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, to unpack the fast-moving fallout from the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Together, they explain why wheat prices were already moving higher before the latest geopolitical shock, how crude oil is adding fresh volatility, and why current rallies may create marketing opportunities for producers.
The discussion also explores the fertilizer side of the equation in detail. Linville explains how much of the world’s urea and phosphate trade depends on the Middle East, why the spring import window matters so much for U.S. growers, and how delayed buying patterns could worsen supply problems. O’Dea connects those fertilizer risks back to wheat production, protein, corn acres, and broader crop competition, offering listeners a grounded look at how global events can quickly reshape decisions at the farm gate.
Top 10 takeaways
Detailed Timestamped Rundown
00:00–00:15 — Disclaimer
The episode opens with a reminder that it was recorded on March 11, 2026, and that market conditions may have changed since then.
00:16–01:05 — Episode setup
Aaron Harries introduces the show and guests Mike O’Dea and Josh Linville of StoneX, framing the conversation around grain markets, fertilizer markets, and uncertainty tied to the Iran conflict.
01:06–03:36 — Why wheat was already moving higher
O’Dea explains wheat had been rallying before the conflict due to fund short covering and seasonal tendencies. He notes crude oil volatility then added more upward pressure, even though wheat fundamentals still look bearish.
03:37–05:02 — Strait of Hormuz and fertilizer shock
Linville says the closure of the Strait is a major threat because such a large share of global urea exports and significant phosphate trade move through that region. He outlines sharp fertilizer price increases and stresses that this is not just a nitrogen problem.
05:03–05:53 — Why timing matters for U.S. imports
Linville highlights that April is the biggest arrival month for fertilizer imports into the U.S., and even if product were available immediately, shipping lead times mean deliveries would still lag well into April.
06:02–07:48 — China, Russia, Europe, and global supply distortions
The conversation turns to China’s export restrictions, Russia’s shifting fertilizer flows, and Europe’s reduced production capacity after losing access to cheaper Russian gas. The result is a much tighter and more politicized global fertilizer market.
07:49–09:20 — What high nitrogen prices could mean for wheat
Aaron asks how fertilizer costs and availability could affect wheat production globally. O’Dea says lower application rates could trim yields and create quality concerns, especially around protein.
09:21–10:08 — Will farmers delay or cut applications?
O’Dea says it is still early to know, but Linville adds that poor farm finances and delayed purchasing have already created a fragile just-in-time supply situation.
10:08–12:36 — Domestic production and North American options
Linville argues the situation should be a wake-up call for more domestic nitrogen production. He says the U.S. has gas, demand, and strong environmental standards, but new plants are costly and slow to build. He also explains why phosphate is harder to solve due to rock supply constraints.
12:37–14:57 — If the war ends quickly, how fast do markets react?
O’Dea says grain markets can correct fast when fear subsides, though logistics take longer to normalize. He also discusses funds turning net long in wheat and how hard assets may be attracting money.
15:07–16:34 — Why fertilizer may not stay cheap even after a reopening
Linville says a reopening of vessel traffic could trigger an immediate selloff, but the structural supply gap would remain. He expects the U.S. spring price floor has likely been raised regardless.
16:35–17:51 — Acre shifts and competition between crops
O’Dea says higher fertilizer costs and shifting margins could keep support under corn while also forcing a fight for acres among corn, beans, canola, pulses, and other specialty crops.
17:52–19:21 — What StoneX does for customers
The guests close by explaining StoneX’s role in risk management, fertilizer market education, and helping farmers and agribusinesses think beyond flat price toward margin and value relationships.
19:21–end — Wrap-up
Aaron thanks the guests and directs listeners to email Kansas Wheat with questions and find previous episodes online.
