The U.S. government has long underestimated Al-Qaeda and ISIS; think of President Obama dismissing the latter as “junior varsity.” The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) continues to estimate the number of Al Qaeda operatives at 200, and the CIA claimed 50-100 until the 2016 raid in the Shorabak district of Afghanistan. These are no mere regional nuisances, though. The jihadi guerrilla warfare is now a worldwide phenomenon. How can the US have such a misguided view of the threats in the region? What can be done to rectify this?
