Bitcoin & Markets 2/26/18
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**Disclaimer: This is not investment advice, do your own research, this is all psuedoscience.
Sources below.
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Hello WCN!
PRICES
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Bitstamp: $9747 / 1 finney: $0.97
Mayer Multiple: Spot/200 MA ($8569) = 1.1 (1)
3M BTC Settled Futures (Mar): $9581 / spread: - $150 or 1.7%
CME Futures: Mar18 $9,590 / Jun18 $9,420 (2)
Bitmex Futures: Mar18 $9660 / Jun18 $9736
The market seems to be in an equilibrium around $10k. There's a lot of consolidation happening.
MARKET SIZE and TRANSACTIONS
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Market Cap: $165 B
Dominance Index: 100% lol
Global Bitcoin MC: $433 B
NVT (Network Value/Transaction): 100.65 (3)
Maximalist Price: $25,698
USD value tx'ed on-chain (24h): $0.75 B
Avg tx Val (24h): $5107
I don't really buy the NVT hypothesis as a P/E ratio for bitcoin totally. But I'll include it here for now.
SECURITY
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Difficulty: est. +4% to +7% in 7 days (4)(5)
FEES
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Mempool: 30MB, ~14 sat/b (6)(7)
We will see more efforts to encourage spending by entreprenuers.
DEVELOPMENT
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Merged PRs: 11 merged PRs and 11 closed issues (8)(9)
Lightning Network: 3.8 btc capacity, 1482 open channels, 883 nodes - 1.67 channels/node (10)(11)
OTC VOLUME
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OTC volume from my sources has fallen hard back to Sept levels. The price explains this, because the number of bitcoins traded is about the same. This is more of a retail investor number, and there's new competition for local bitcoins.
GOOGLE TRENDS (14)
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We are lower on google trends again. On a year chart, the term "bitcoin" is at 25 for the most current week. This is out of 100, being the most searched week in the last year.
NEWS
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The feeling in bitcoin has changed a little bit imo. Altcoin exuberance has been tempered. Bitcoin HODLers are patient.
Bitcoin Core 0.16.0 RC4
https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/v0.16.0/doc/release-notes.md
The battle of smart contract platforms is starting.
https://twitter.com/AnselLindner/status/966813921129697286
Petro scandal
https://www.coindesk.com/petro-debut-learned-venezuelas-cryptocurrency-today/
Now Turkish Crypto?
https://www.coindesk.com/turkish-lawmaker-proposes-national-cryptocurrency-creation/
Russia, Venezuela, Turkey, etc etc etc. Very bullish for the reserve currency, bitcoin.
SOURCES
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1. Mayer Multiple: http://mayermultiple.com
2. CME futures: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/bitcoin.html
3. Network Value to Transaction Ratio: http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-ratio/
4. Network stats: http://fork.lol/pow/retarget
5. Difficulty: https://cryptothis.com/diff/
6. Real time fees: https://tradeblock.com/bitcoin/
7. Visualization: https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#3m
8. Bitcoin github stats: https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pulse
9. Ranking: https://www.coingecko.com
10. LN testnet: https://explorer.acinq.co/#/
11. LN nodes: https://lnmainnet.gaben.win/#
12. LedgerX: http://data.ledgerx.com/
13. Gemini Auction: https://gemini.com/auction-data/
14. Google trends "bitcoin": https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin
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