We’ve entered a new era of geopolitics. From globalization and free trade stabilized by American soft power, we’re now in a more transactional period characterized by nation states weaponizing their economies with tariffs, a global leadership vacuum and greater competition among the superpowers. So should this affect cross-border investment strategies? And can earlier periods in history teach us lessons about what to expect in future?
Yes to both, says Jonathan Boff, who may be the perfect person to turn for guidance. Boff has a CV that straddles the domains of business and history, as a former investment banker who is now a professor of military history at the University of Birmingham.
“My instinct is that we need to be aware of over-catastrophizing too soon,” says Boff in conversation with AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson. Boff suggests looking for lessons in the period immediately after the First World War, when the world transitioned from global free trade to another era of tariffs and trade barriers. In addition, Boff and Branson discuss the dangers represented by a weaker, more politically-beholden Federal Reserve, the need for more positive economic strategies; and the ways investors can prepare for highly unpredictable global events.
LINKS
Jonathan Boff’s book, Haig’s Enemy: Crown Prince Rupprecht and Germany’s War on the Western Front https://www.amazon.ca/s?k=9780199670475&i=stripbooks&linkCode=qs
Take the AFIRE H2 2025 investor survey https://www.afire.org/survey/h22025invite/
Register for the AFIRE Annual Member Meeting https://www.afire.org/events/amm25/
Watch the AFIRE POV series of investor interviews https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLOrtO-j6M9aS8Hr7DHeg562A8-HQrxi8o
Read the latest articles from Summit Journal Issue #18 https://www.afire.org/summit/
Access the episode webpage featuring links to audio-only platforms here:
https://www.afire.org/podcast/202512cast/
KEY MOMENTS
00:00 AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson intro
00:53 Meet Jonathan Boff, Professor of Military History, University of Birmingham
01:46 What should investors focus on amid global conflicts?
05:11 How do we connect politics and global economic interests?
15:34 What can we expect from US-implemented tariffs?
20:38 What should investors know about unpredictable international markets?
26:35 How should investors go about trusting the Fed?
32:43 What most get wrong about military conflicts’ economic impact