Asian allies fear being dumped by Trump
America’s friends in the Indo-Pacific live in dread of being abandoned like Ukraine
Mar 6th 2025|SINGAPORE AND TAIPEI
亞洲盟友擔心被川普拋棄
美國在印太地區的朋友憂心被拋棄，如同烏克蘭的遭遇
2025年3月6日 | 新加坡與台北
WHO WILL be next? As America abandons Ukraine and ignores European allies, its closest friends in Asia ask whether they too will be** shaken down or cast aside**. The worries grow deeper as China flexes its muscles. In recent weeks it has conducted naval live-fire exercises off Taiwan, in the Gulf of Tonkin and as far as the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand. On February 25th, Taiwan detained a Chinese ship suspected of severing an undersea cable.
誰會是下一個？
當美國拋棄烏克蘭並無視歐洲盟友時，其在亞洲最親密的夥伴也開始擔憂，自己是否也會遭到敲詐或被拋棄。隨著中國展現軍事實力，這種擔憂愈發加深。最近幾週，中國在台灣附近、北部灣（東京灣）以及遠至澳洲與紐西蘭之間的塔斯曼海進行了海上實彈演習。2月25日，台灣扣押了一艘涉嫌切斷海底電纜的中國船隻。
America’s Asian allies are torn between competing theories. One holds that Asia is different from Europe because China poses a far greater threat than Russia does. America thus needs Asian allies more than European ones, and will defend the “first island chain” in the Pacific—including Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines—as the best means to contain China.
美國的亞洲盟友在相互競爭的理論之間搖擺不定。其中一種觀點認為，亞洲與歐洲不同，因為中國構成的威脅遠大於俄羅斯。因此，美國比起歐洲盟友更需要亞洲盟友，並且會堅守太平洋的「第一島鏈」——包括日本、台灣和菲律賓——作為遏制中國的最佳手段。
The Trump administration, moreover, contains China hawks such as Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, and Mike Waltz, the national security adviser. They have assured friends about America’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific. Military spending has so far been protected from cuts elsewhere. Donald Trump has hosted both the Japanese and Indian prime ministers. The administration’s language on Taiwan, a self-governing island that China claims as its own, has been toughened.
此外，川普政府內部有對中國強硬的官員，例如國務卿馬可·魯比奧（Marco Rubio）和國家安全顧問麥克·沃爾茨（Mike Waltz）。他們向盟友保證，美國對印太地區的承諾依然堅定。目前，軍事預算仍未受到其他領域削減的影響。川普已接待日本和印度的總理，而政府對於台灣——這個中國聲稱擁有主權但實際上自治的島嶼——的措辭也變得更加強硬。
The contrary view is that Mr Trump has not yet turned his mind to Asia. He thinks all allies are a burden, so will resort to threats, tariffs and demands for gains in return for protection. In his first term he threatened to withdraw American troops from South Korea. Mr Trump has proposed tariffs on microchips, and claimed Taiwan “stole” America’s semiconductor industry. Unlike his predecessor, Joe Biden, he refuses to say whether he would defend the island. He may be reverting to conventional** “strategic ambiguity”**, except that he has intimated Taiwan is not worth protecting. As for Messrs Rubio and Waltz, their loyalty to the president eclipses long-held beliefs. They reassured Europeans that Mr Trump would not forsake Ukraine. But when he did, they cheered him on.
另一種相反的觀點認為，川普尚未真正關注亞洲事務。他認為所有盟友都是負擔，因此會透過威脅、關稅和施壓來換取美國的保護。在第一任期內，他曾威脅要撤出駐韓美軍。川普還提議對微晶片（半導體）徵收關稅，並聲稱台灣「偷走」了美國的半導體產業。與他的前任拜登不同，川普拒絕表態是否會保衛台灣。他可能正回歸傳統的「戰略模糊」政策，但不同的是，他已暗示台灣不值得美國保護。至於魯比奧與沃爾茨，他們對川普的忠誠已超越了自己長期堅持的信念。他們曾向歐洲盟友保證川普不會拋棄烏克蘭，但當川普這麼做時，他們卻為他喝采。
Even as he escalates the trade war with China, Mr Trump has spoken about striking a deal with its leader, Xi Jinping, suggesting they could work to solve the world’s problems. He has mused about a three-way summit with Mr Xi and Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, to reduce nuclear stockpiles and cut defence spending.
即使川普加劇了與中國的貿易戰，他仍談及與中國領導人習近平達成協議，並暗示雙方可以合作解決全球問題。他還曾設想舉行一場三方峰會，與習近平及俄羅斯領導人普京會面，以削減核武庫並降低國防開支。
All this suggests a belief in spheres of influence. The question is whether Mr Trump thinks America’s domain begins at the first island chain or deeper into the Pacific. “Trump likely wants to avoid war more than he wants to maintain US primacy in China’s neighbourhood,” says Denny Roy of the East-West Centre, a think-tank in Honolulu. “His natural inclination is a world of empires in which the three great powers (the USA, China and Russia) **annex **their respective near-abroads and then don’t bother each other.”
所有這些跡象顯示，川普可能相信勢力範圍的概念。問題在於，他是否認為美國的勢力範圍從第一島鏈開始，還是應該深入太平洋更遠的地方。檀香山東西方中心（East-West Centre）智庫的丹尼·羅伊（Denny Roy）表示：「川普可能更希望避免戰爭，而不是維持美國在中國周邊的主導地位。他的本能傾向於一個帝國化的世界，在這個世界裡，三個大國各自吞併周邊地區，然後互不干涉。」
Opinion among Asian allies ranges from worried to alarmed. One Taiwanese official admits he cannot sleep at night. Richard Heydarian of the University of the Philippines argues that America cannot be fully relied on. Singapore, astride a major maritime trade route, is jittery. The Trump administration’s assurances thus far amount to “bureaucratic momentum”, says William Choong of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a think-tank in Singapore. “Once Trump turns his attention to this region, who knows what will happen?”
亞洲盟友的看法從憂心到驚恐不等。一名台灣官員坦言，他夜裡輾轉難眠。菲律賓大學的理查德·海達里安（Richard Heydarian）認為，美國並不完全可靠。位於重要海上貿易路線上的新加坡也感到不安。新加坡智庫—尤索夫伊薩東南亞研究院（ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute）的鍾偉倫（William Choong）表示，川普政府迄今為止的承諾只是「官僚機構的慣性運作」，他補充道：「一旦川普將注意力轉向這個地區，誰知道會發生什麼？」
One response to the uncertainty is to avoid catching Mr Trump’s eye. Ishiba Shigeru, the Japanese prime minister, said on March 3rd he had “no intention of taking sides” in the crisis between America and Ukraine. Another is to assuage the president. Mr Ishiba promised to boost the stock of Japanese direct investments in America from nearly $800bn in 2023 to $1trn. Taiwan’s most important chipmaker, TSMC, announced $100bn worth of investments to build new facilities in America. Further measures include raising defence spending and buying more American weapons and liquefied natural gas.
面對這種不確定性，一種應對方式是避免吸引川普的注意。日本首相石破茂（Ishiba Shigeru）在3月3日表示，他「無意在美國與烏克蘭的危機中選邊站」。另一種做法則是安撫川普。石破承諾將日本對美國的直接投資從2023年接近8000億美元提升至1兆美元。台灣最重要的晶片製造商台積電（TSMC）則宣布將投資1000億美元，在美國建立新設施。其他應對措施還包括提高國防支出、購買更多美國武器以及進口更多美國的液化天然氣。
Some Asians complain that paying tribute to America is no different from bowing before China—and at least Mr Xi offers his neighbours favourable trade deals. China is playing on such fears. As a recent commentary by the state-run Xinhua news agency notes: being an American ally can prove “fatal”, and countries that thought of themselves as important partners will become “discarded chess pieces”. ■
一些亞洲人抱怨說，向美國致敬無異於向中國鞠躬——至少習近平向鄰國提供了有利的貿易協議。中國正在利用這種恐懼。正如官方新華社最近的一篇評論所指出的那樣：成為美國的盟友可能是“致命的”，而那些自認為重要合作夥伴的國家將成為“被丟棄的棋子”。
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