How America could end up making China great again
A big beautiful opportunity
1) Editor’s note (April 5th 2025): On April 4th, China retaliated against Donald Trump’s tariffs, imposing a 34% duty on American goods.
編者按（2025年4月5日）：在4月4日，中國針對唐納·川普的關稅措施進行報復，對美國商品徵收34%的關稅。
2) While Trump escalates trade pressure on China and emphasizes U.S. military alliances in Asia, Beijing sees opportunity amid the chaos. His tariffs, now totaling 65% on some Chinese goods, come as China faces deflation, a housing slump, and weak consumption. Rerouting exports through countries like Vietnam to avoid tariffs now seems less viable.
當川普加大對中國的貿易壓力，並強調美國在亞洲的軍事同盟時，北京卻在混亂中看到了機會。他對部分中國商品徵收的關稅總額已達65%，正值中國面臨通縮、房市低迷與內需疲弱之際。透過越南等國重新佈局製造鏈以規避關稅的策略，如今也變得不那麼可行。
3) Despite economic strains, China is more prepared than during Trump’s first term. President Xi Jinping’s vision of a declining U.S. role now appears more credible. His push for technological and economic self-sufficiency has reduced China’s reliance on America, with growing use of the yuan in global payments.
儘管經濟承壓，中國比川普第一任期時準備得更充分。習近平主席所描繪的美國全球影響力衰退的願景，如今看來更具可信度。他推動科技與經濟自給自足，已降低中國對美國的依賴，人民幣在國際支付中的使用也日益增加。
4) China’s industrial strength is often underestimated. It outpaces Western rivals in fields like electric vehicles and drones. AI companies like DeepSeek suggest innovation can flourish despite U.S. tech sanctions. Xi’s apparent shift towards supporting entrepreneurs has also helped lift Chinese markets—MSCI’s index is up 15% in 2025.
中國的工業實力經常被低估。在電動車與無人機等領域，中國已超越西方競爭對手。像 DeepSeek 這類的人工智慧公司顯示，即使面對美國的科技制裁，創新仍能蓬勃發展。習近平近期對企業家的支持態度轉變，也推動了中國股市上揚——MSCI 中國指數在2025年上漲了15%。
5) Property markets in cities like Shanghai are stabilizing. The government is injecting stimulus, with 10.4 trillion yuan in new bonds to support consumption and refinance local debts. Yet to fully unlock growth, China must stop stifling private enterprise and restore business confidence.
上海等城市的房地產市場正逐漸穩定。政府正注入刺激資金，發行總額達10.4兆元人民幣的新債券，以提振消費並協助地方政府償還債務。然而，要真正釋放經濟成長潛力，中國仍需停止打壓民營企業，恢復市場信心。
6) Geopolitically, Trump’s foreign policy offers China more room to maneuver. Although U.S. hawks claim a pivot from Europe will strengthen its China containment strategy, Trump’s admiration for Xi and inconsistent messaging, including outreach via Senator Steve Daines, reflect confusion. MAGA-era isolationism undermines America’s traditional leadership role.
在地緣政治上，川普的外交政策為中國提供了更多操作空間。儘管美國鷹派聲稱從歐洲轉向將強化其圍堵中國的戰略，川普對習近平的欣賞以及他反覆無常的訊息——包括透過參議員史蒂夫·戴恩斯（Steve Daines）釋出善意——卻顯示出混亂。「讓美國再次偉大」時代的孤立主義，正在削弱美國傳統的全球領導地位。
7) Xi sees a chance to increase China’s influence, especially in the Global South, by promoting green investment and stable trade. If China also takes stronger climate action, it could gain global credibility. Meanwhile, doubts over America’s willingness to defend Taiwan—especially if it produces its own semiconductors—play to China’s strategic advantage.
習近平看到了擴大中國影響力的機會，特別是在全球南方國家，透過推動綠色投資與穩定貿易來實現。如果中國進一步加強氣候行動，還可能提升其全球信譽。與此同時，外界對美國是否願意保衛台灣的疑慮——尤其在美國自製先進晶片的情況下——正為中國帶來戰略上的優勢。
8) But risks remain: a deepening trade war could spur global recession or new sanctions. Whether China can seize the moment depends on Xi. Yet ironically, it’s Trump who has opened the door.
但風險依然存在：加劇的貿易戰可能引發全球經濟衰退或帶來新一輪制裁。中國能否把握這個時機，端視習近平的決策。然而諷刺的是，打開這扇機會之門的，正是川普。
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