1. Can China Undermine Taiwan’s Will to Resist?
China appears to be ramping up its psychological campaign against Taiwan, aiming for a “Peiping model” — a bloodless takeover by convincing the island that resistance is futile. While the People’s Liberation Army rehearses blockades, Chinese influence efforts are already in motion. Espionage prosecutions in Taiwan have surged, and even members of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are under investigation.
Taiwan is politically divided. President Lai Ching-te’s DPP disavows reunification with China, while the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) favors closer ties. The KMT and the populist Taiwan People’s Party dominate the legislature and have clashed with Lai, cutting defense budgets and passing controversial laws that weaken the executive branch.
Beijing is leveraging local ties, such as with KMT leader Fu Kun-chi, who represents Hualien. After his visit to China, Beijing lifted a ban on pomelo imports—from Hualien only—boosting his popularity at home despite national criticism.
Public morale is faltering. Polls show declining trust in the U.S., rising fears of eventual unification with China, and dissatisfaction with the DPP, especially among young voters focused on domestic issues like housing and wages.
Despite a strong preference among Taiwanese to maintain the status quo, fewer believe it’s sustainable. China's cognitive warfare seems to be working, sowing doubt and fatigue.** The real test of Taiwan's resilience may come sooner than expected.**
中國能削弱台灣的抗拒意志嗎？
中國正加強對台灣的心理戰，目標是實現「北平模式」——不戰而屈人之兵，讓台灣相信抵抗毫無意義。雖然解放軍仍在演練封鎖行動，但滲透與認知作戰早已展開。台灣近年來間諜案激增，甚至連執政的民進黨都有成員遭調查。
台灣政局分裂。總統賴清德領導的民進黨堅決反對與中國統一，而在野的國民黨（KMT）主張與中國加強交流，與民眾黨聯手掌控立法院，並與賴政府對立，刪減國防預算，通過削弱總統職權的法案。
中國也利用地方政治力量，如代表花蓮的國民黨立委傅崐萁。傅赴中國後，中方僅解除對花蓮文旦的進口禁令，讓他在當地人氣上升，儘管在全國範圍內受到批評。
民心開始動搖。民調顯示對美國的不信任上升，對「被統一」的預期增加，而對民進黨的支持減弱，尤其是年輕選民更關心房價與薪資等民生議題。
雖然逾八成台灣人希望維持現狀，但相信能長期維持的比例不斷下降。中國的認知戰似乎奏效，正在削弱台灣的信心與意志。台灣的真正考驗，可能比想像中來得更快。
2. Podcast: Increasingly the sense is that China’s not quite ready for an invasion, that President Xi Jinping doesn’t trust the PLA to be able to do it quickly enough and at acceptable cost. So the feeling now is that just as likely as an invasion or perhaps more likely than invasion is some kind of **blockade or quarantine or siege **of the island to exert unbearable pressure on it.
愈來愈多的跡象顯示，中國目前尚未準備好發動對台灣的全面入侵。外界普遍認為，中共領導人習近平對解放軍的能力仍存疑，擔心軍事行動無法迅速完成，且代價過高。因此，與其說中國準備入侵台灣，更可能、甚至更可行的策略，是對台實施某種形式的封鎖、隔離或圍困，藉此對台灣施加無法承受的壓力，逼使其屈服。
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