CropGPT Weekly Cocoa Market Update
Episode Date: May 11, 2025
Welcome to this week’s summary of the global cocoa market, powered by CropGPT. This podcast highlights key market developments, while our website offers full reports, long-term data, and in-depth analysis.
🇳🇬 Nigeria: Cocoa Revival Driven by Youth and Price Incentives
- Rising cocoa prices since 2023 have attracted a new generation of young entrepreneurs to cocoa farming in Nigeria.
- Example: Anoge Akwa, who transitioned from a previous career into cocoa farming, reflecting a broader movement in the sector.
- Local farmers have seen their economic fortunes transform dramatically thanks to the price surge.
- Cocoa prices climbed to nearly $11,000/MT in 2024, up sharply from the $2,200–$2,500/MT range in 2022.
- The rally has been driven by reduced output from major exporters like Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Despite Nigeria being the fourth-largest cocoa producer, growth potential is restrained by:
- Smuggling of cocoa beans
- Broader economic challenges, though cocoa exports have cushioned the impact of naira devaluation
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast: Mid-Crop Outlook Improves
- The Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is benefitting from above-average rains, boosting mid-crop yield forecasts.
- Output is expected to increase through August and September, with strong support from the rainy season (April–November).
- Local conditions (rainfall and temperature) have been ideal, leading to healthy pod development.
📉 Cocoa Tariffs and Corporate Impact
- The recent price spike has triggered concern among major buyers.
- Hershey Co. is actively seeking tariff exemptions in the U.S. to offset rising raw material costs.
- Without relief, the company estimates up to $100 million in additional costs per quarter in H2 2025.
- Mondelez and Nestlé are also adapting to price volatility by adjusting retail pricing and packaging strategies.
🌍 Macro Trends and Market Strain
- Global cocoa markets remain volatile, with tariff uncertainty stemming from U.S. policy decisions initiated under the Trump administration.
- These tariffs:
- Vary across cocoa-growing regions
- Increase operational complexity
- Threaten consumer demand for discretionary products like chocolate and snacks
📢 For Full Reports and Data:
Visit CropGPT for:
- Crop health dashboards
- 20+ years of weather and yield records
- Cocoa pricing trends
- Smuggling and export flow insights
- Earning call analysis and corporate exposure tracking
