This episode presents a structured overview of the global cocoa market for the week ending May 25, 2025, focusing on regional supply trends, weather impacts, production forecasts, and global pricing dynamics.
- Ivory Coast: Cocoa export volumes increased by 10.5% to 1.58 million metric tons since the beginning of the season. However, this growth marks a significant slowdown compared to the 35% increase recorded in December. The deceleration, combined with persistent drought across one-third of the region, raises concerns about future supply. Additionally, mid-crop quality has been negatively affected, with 5–6% of beans deemed substandard due to erratic rainfall. The mid-crop yield is expected to fall to 400,000 metric tons, representing a 9% year-over-year decline, contributing to upward pressure on global prices.
- Ghana: Similar to the Ivory Coast, Ghana continues to face production challenges due to drought. Cocobod, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, has revised its 2024/25 harvest forecast downward by 5% to 675,000 metric tons. These reductions are expected to tighten global supply and support current high price levels.
- Nigeria: The Nigerian cocoa sector is experiencing a resurgence driven by favorable market prices and renewed investment. Cocoa exports surged by 606% from NGN 171 billion in 2023 to NGN 1.2 trillion in 2024. Government initiatives such as the establishment of the National Cocoa Management Board and new large-scale plantation projects aim to scale up production and increase processing capacity.
- Global Demand and Price Dynamics: While major chocolate manufacturers such as Barry Callebaut AG and Hershey Co have revised forecasts downward due to high input costs and tariffs, demand remains relatively resilient. Cocoa grindings in North America, Europe, and particularly Asia declined less than expected, providing some support to prices.
- Market Outlook: Despite current supply concerns, the International Cocoa Organization forecasts a global surplus of 142,000 metric tons for the 2024/25 season, underpinned by a projected 7.8% rise in global cocoa production. This could contribute to medium-term price easing, depending on how weather patterns and policy developments unfold.
