This episode delivers a comprehensive update on the global cocoa market as of July 6, 2025, highlighting both production shifts and economic challenges in key producing countries, as well as broader market dynamics.
- Guyana anticipates a cocoa harvest of 650,000 metric tons, marking an 8.3% increase over last season. This growth is attributed to favorable weather and better pod development, though pest control and input shortages may still hinder yields. In Ghana, the Cocoa Board is grappling with severe financial stress, including a debt of CD33 billion, prompting restructuring efforts to sustain farmer support and industry stability.
- The Ivory Coast, the leading global cocoa producer, reported 1,679,000 metric tons shipped between October 2024 and June 2025, reflecting a slowdown in growth. Quality issues have intensified due to poor weather, resulting in increased rejection rates of the mid-crop harvest. In response, the government is boosting domestic processing through a new state-owned factory to mitigate market pressures.
- Nigeria is investing in value-added processing and quality improvements to raise the domestic economic value of cocoa. However, challenges persist in promoting internal consumption to reduce dependency on raw exports. The creation of the National Cocoa Management Board reflects a strengthened regulatory approach.
- On the global front, the International Cocoa Organization forecasts a 494,000 metric ton deficit for the 2023–24 season, the largest in over 60 years. A potential surplus may emerge in 2024–25 due to expected production recoveries. Despite this, demand remains weak as high prices and economic uncertainty continue to suppress chocolate consumption, contributing to market volatility.
